Dreadful First Quarter Bookings Anticipated by Travel Agents: Late last month, the forecast by the Japan Association of Travel Agents 
(JATA) for outbound overseas travel for the first quarter of 2015 was already less than good. In fact, the index forecast for Q1 was the worst in more than two years. And this was, of course, before the terrorists of the Islamic State had brutally beheaded a Japanese national somewhere in the territory that it controls in Syria and Iraq. The concern over the Islamic State, along with the mid-fourth quarter concern over the Ebola virus scare, as well as a weak Japanese yen, led the members of the JATA to score Q1 as a weak quarter in its quarterly Survey of Travel Market Trends. There was little to cheer in the JATA survey report—either in the overall picture for outbound overseas travel, or in the outlook for key travel market sectors.
Outbound Overseas Travel Trend for Past Two Years,
Using the JATA Diffusion Index†
| Quarter | Diffusion Index† |
|---|---|
| October-December, 2013 | -30 |
| April-June, 2013 | -31 |
| July-September, 2013 | -23 |
| October-December, 2013 | -19 |
| January-March, 2014 | -24 |
| April-June, 2014 | -23 |
| July-September, 2014 | -21 |
| October-December, 2014 | -27* |
| January-March, 2015 | -35 |
* This is six points worse than had been forecast† See explanation at end of article
Regional Outlook: Compared to the previous quarter (July-September), demand for comparatively popular destinations like America & Canada (8 points), Hawaii (4 points) Europe (19 points), decreased. An increase was seen in China, South Korea (6 points), Micronesia (5 points) and Asia (4 points), while Oceania remained unchanged.
In the next three months (January-March), the report indicated, no destinations are expected to show growth. The overlook is that Micronesia (-9 points) will further show a double-digit decrease, while Hawaii (-4 points), South Korea (-3 points) Europe, Oceania (-2 points), America & Canada, China, Asia (-1 point) will continue the slight downward trend.
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand
(By destination segment)
| Destination | 1 yr. ago | 9 mos. | 6 mos. | 3 mos. | Current | Jan-Mar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-Dec | Jan-Mar | Apr-June | July-Sept | Oct-Dec | 2015 | |
| Hawaii | -2 | 2 | -4 | -6 | -10 | -14 |
| USA/Canada | -27 | -29 | -26 | -26 | -34 | -35 |
| Europe | -9 | -10 | -12 | -11 | -30 | -32 |
| Oceania | -46 | -37 | -45 | -45 | -45 | -47 |
| Micronesia | -28 | -27 | -28 | -32 | -27 | -36 |
| China | -78 | -78 | -71 | -81 | -75 | -76 |
| Asia | -7 | -12 | -16 | -17 | -13 | -14 |
| S. Korea | -73 | -75 | -75 | -79 | -73 | -76 |
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand
(By Market Segment)
| Market Segment | 1 year ago | Jan-Mar 2014 | Apr-June 2014 | July-Oct 2014 | Oct-Dec 2014 | Jan-Mar 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-Dec 2013 | ||||||
| Honeymoon | -30 | -22 | -30 | -37 | -30 | -45 |
| Family | -25 | -27 | -32 | -24 | -44 | -48 |
| Female Office Worker | -34 | -39 | -40 | -39 | -47 | -50 |
| Student | -48 | -36 | -47 | -52 | -56 | -51 |
| Senior* | -4 | -7 | -8 | -9 | -17 | -21 |
| Incentive** | -29 | -38 | -31 | -28 | -32 | -36 |
| Business - Technical | -8 | -16 | -18 | -9 | -9 | -19 |
** Incentive: Travel offered as an incentive to business and organization employees* Senior: Customers aged 60 or older
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
†A Note on the Methodology and the DI (Diffusion Index): The JATA Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the “do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.” The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100. Survey period—Nov 7-26, 2014; Registered companies—600; Responding companies—320; Response rate—53.3%.
