The latest quarterly report and forecast by the Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) for outbound overseas travel for the first quarter and second quarters of 2015 is dismal overall. From the last quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of this year, the JATA Survey of Travel Market Trends, which conducts online interviews with travel agents and operators shows that, overall, the confident factor based on bookings and prospective bookings fell by more than 40 percent (although it actually improved for the USA and Canada).
The report said that the depreciation of the yen, fear of terrorism, and other concerns have acted as negative factors influencing customers’ willingness to travel. However, it added, the decreased fuel surcharges resulting from the lower crude oil prices have left the travel companies hopeful about an increase in demand in the future. Still, even with the surcharge news, the overall outlook is about the same for the second quarter.
Outbound Overseas Travel Trend for Past Two Years,
Using the JATA Diffusion Index†
| Destination | 1 year ago. | 9 mos. ago | 6 mos. ago | 3 mos. ago | Jan-Mar | 3 mos. out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Mar | Apr-June | July-Sept | Oct-Dec | 2015 | Apr-June | |
| Hawaii | 2 | -4 | -6 | -10 | -11 | -12 |
| USA/Canada | -29 | -26 | -26 | -34 | -31 | -30 |
| Europe | -10 | -12 | -11 | -30 | -39 | -39 |
| Oceania | -37 | -45 | -45 | -45 | -39 | -39 |
| Micronesia | -27 | -28 | -32 | -27 | -31 | -30 |
| China | -78 | -71 | -81 | -75 | -73 | -71 |
| Asia | -12 | -16 | -17 | -13 | -13 | -14 |
| S. Korea | -76 | -75 | -79 | -73 | -72 | -63 |
† See explanation at end of article
Q2 Should See Minimal, if any, Increase for North America: Compared to the previous three months (October – December), Europe and Hawaii dropped by 9 and 2 points respectively for a second consecutive term. With the exception of Micronesia which dropped by 4 points, Oceania grew by 6 points, America and Canada by 3 points, China by 2 points and South Korea by 1 point, all four destinations showing a gradual recovery. Demand for Asia remained unchanged. During the next three months (April – June), demand for Europe and Oceania will not change, and the market in general is not expected to show much activity. South Korea, however is expected to stand out by improving by 9 points. China will grow by 2 points, America and Canada by 1 point, Micronesia by 1 point as all four destinations will improve. Demand for Hawaii and Asia though growing by 1 point each will decrease
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand
(by destination segment)
| Destination | 1 year ago. | 9 mos. ago | 6 mos. ago | 3 mos. ago | Jan-Mar | 3 mos. out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Mar | Apr-June | July-Sept | Oct-Dec | 2015 | Apr-June | |
| Hawaii | 2 | -4 | -6 | -10 | -11 | -12 |
| USA/Canada | -29 | -26 | -26 | -34 | -31 | -30 |
| Europe | -10 | -12 | -11 | -30 | -39 | -39 |
| Oceania | -37 | -45 | -45 | -45 | -39 | -39 |
| Micronesia | -27 | -28 | -32 | -27 | -31 | -30 |
| China | -78 | -71 | -81 | -75 | -73 | -71 |
| Asia | -12 | -16 | -17 | -13 | -13 | -14 |
| S. Korea | -76 | -75 | -79 | -73 | -72 | -63 |
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
Senior Market Outlook down Six Consecutive Quarters: Echoing reports that have come from other quarters, the JATA survey indicates that agents and operators have become increasingly pessimistic about the performance of the senior market, whose numbers have declined steadily since the last quarter of 2013.
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand
(by Market Segment)
| Quarter | Diffusion Index† |
|---|---|
| January-March 2013 | -30 |
| April-June, 2013 | -31 |
| July-September, 2013 | -23 |
| October-December, 2013 | -19 |
| January-March, 2014 | -24 |
| April-June, 2014 | -23 |
| July-September, 2014 | -21 |
| October-December, 2014 | -27 |
| January-March, 2015 | -38 |
| April-June 2015 (3 months out) | -37 |
* Senior: Customers aged 60 or older
** Incentive: Travel offered as an incentive to business and organization employees
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
†A Note on the Methodology and the DI (Diffusion Index): TThe JATA Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the “do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.” The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100. Survey period—Feb. 9-25, 2015; Registered companies—595; Responding companies—325; Response rate—54.6%.
