For a moment, nothing happened. Then…nothing continued to happen,” wrote the late British author Douglas Adams, in an appraisal that seems so sum up the outbound travel market for Japan in the second quarter of 2015, although some retail travel agents believe, that for July through September, the outlook for the U.S. is up a tick.
The latest quarterly travel trade survey conducted by the Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) indicates that, overall, demand for outbound travel will increase (see table below) by nine points on JATA’s diffusion index scale as customers are gradually returning to Europe, France and Britain, but still lagging behind. Asian beaches remain, according to some travel agents.
Meanwhile, family travel to Hawaii and other resort destinations is expected to grow. Travel to the USA., described by the report as “a relatively safe destination in terms of terrorism threats,” will grow, according to some travel trade respondents to the survey that serves as the basis for the quarterly report, which shows that, overall, the current market condition is still less healthy than it was two years ago.
Overall Outbound Overseas Travel Trend for Past Two Years,
Using the JATA Diffusion Index†
| Quarter | Diffusion Index† |
|---|---|
| April-June, 2013 | -31 |
| July-September, 2013 | -23 |
| October-December, 2013 | -19 |
| January-March, 2014 | -26 |
| April-June, 2014 | -23 |
| July-September, 2014 | -21 |
| October-December, 2014 | -27 |
| January-March, 2015 | -38 |
| April-June 2015 | -36 |
| July-September 2015 | -27 |
† See explanation at end of article
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
Outbound Overseas Travel Trend by Destination
Using the JATA Diffusion Index†
| Market | April-June | July-Sept | Oct-Dec | Jan-March | Apr-June | July-Sept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | |
| Hawaii | -4 | -6 | -10 | -11 | -9 | -8 |
| USA/Canada | -26 | -26 | -34 | -31 | -31 | -27 |
| Europe | -12 | -11 | -30 | -39 | -41 | -32 |
| Oceania | -45 | -45 | -45 | -39 | -43 | -40 |
| Micronesia | -38 | -32 | -27 | -31 | -33 | -27 |
| China | -71 | -81 | -75 | -73 | -64 | -62 |
| Asia | -16 | -17 | -13 | -13 | -5 | -5 |
† See explanation at end of article
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
Encouraging is the news, based on the JATA report, that, during Q3, demand for overseas travel will increase in all major market segment: family (+12); working women (+9); students (+8); seniors (+7); incentive (+6); business/technical visits (+5); and honeymooners (+3).
Outbound Overseas Travel Trend by Market Segment
Using the JATA Diffusion Index†
| Market | April-June | July-Sept | Oct-Dec | Jan-March | Apr-June | July-Sept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | |
| Honeymoon | -30 | -37 | -39 | -37 | -41 | -38 |
| Family | -32 | -24 | -44 | -44 | -45 | -33 |
| Female office worker | -40 | -39 | -47 | -46 | -47 | -38 |
| Student | -47 | -52 | -56 | -49 | -59 | -51 |
| Senior* | -8 | -9 | -17 | -23 | -25 | -18 |
| Incentive | -31 | -28 | -32 | -39 | -31 | -25 |
| Business/ | -16 | -9 | -9 | -23 | -14 | -9 |
| Technical visit** |
† See explanation at end of article
* Senior: Customers aged 60 or older.
** Incentive: Travel offered as an incentive to business and organization employees
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
†A Note on the Methodology and the DI (Diffusion Index): The JATA Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the “do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.” The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100. Survey period—May 19-June 3, 2015; Registered companies—611; Responding companies—351; Response rate—57.4%.
