Not mincing any words in the latest report based on the results of its quarterly survey of the Japanese travel trade that was released late last week, the Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) said that “despite the recovery trend seen in the (last) quarter, the results are dim.”
Using its Diffusion Index (DI)† measurement, JATA’s results indicates the outlook for Hawaii and the USA/Canada are less optimistic than they were in the previous quarter and down 15 percent from what it was a year ago. And it is down another three percent for the next quarter (October through December). The survey results indicated minimal optimism in the demand for China and Europe. Meanwhile, the overall outlook for the final quarter of 2015 was expected to improve over the current quarter, yet remain lower than it was last year.
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand
(by Destinations)
| Destination | 1 Year Ago | 9 Months Ago | 6 Months Ago | 3 Months Ago | Current 3 mons | Next 3 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July-Sept. 2014 | Oct-Dec 14 | Jan-Mar 15 | Apr-Jun 15 | Jul-Sep 15 | Oct-Dec 15 | ||
| Hawaii | -6 | -10 | -11 | -9 | -6 | -9 | |
| USA/Canada | -26 | -34 | -31 | -31 | -30 | -31 | |
| Europe | -11 | -30 | -39 | -41 | -40 | -38 | |
| Oceania | -45 | -45 | -39 | -43 | -47 | -40 | |
| Micronesia | -32 | -27 | -31 | -33 | -37 | -38 | |
| China | -81 | -75 | -73 | -64 | -62 | -61 | |
| Asia | -17 | -13 | -13 | -5 | -20 | -21 | |
| S. Korea | -79 | -73 | -72 | -66 | -96 | -74 | |
| Overseas overall | -21 | -27 | -38 | -36 | -38 | -33 |
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand
(by Market Segment)
| Destination | 1 Year Ago | 9 Months Ago | 6 Months Ago | 3 Months Ago | Current 3 mos. | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July-Sept. 2014 | Oct-Dec 14 | Jan-Mar 15 | Apr-Jun 15 | Jul-Sep 15 | Oct-Dec 15 | |
| Honeymoon | -37 | -49 | -37 | -41 | -38 | -34 |
| Family | -24 | -44 | -44 | -45 | -41 | -43 |
| Female Office | -39 | -47 | -46 | -47 | -50 | -49 |
| Worker | ||||||
| Student | -52 | -56 | -49 | -59 | -62 | -64 |
| Senior* | -9 | -17 | -23 | -25 | -31 | -22 |
| Incentive** | -28 | -32 | -39 | -31 | -31 | -27 |
| Business-Technical | -9 | -9 | -23 | -14 | -15 | -15 |
* Senior: Customers aged 60 or older
** Incentive: Travel offered as an incentive to business and organization employees
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
†A Note on the Methodology and the DI (Diffusion Index): The JATA Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the “do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.” The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100. Survey period—Aug. 6-27, 2015; Registered companies—602; Responding companies—327; Response rate—54.3 percent.
