The outlook from Japan for Visit USA business has remained flat among the Japanese travel trade throughout 2015 and it looks that way for the first quarter of 2016. This is one of the key findings based on the results of the latest quarterly survey of the Japanese travel trade released late last week by the Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA). Another finding is that the outlook for every key market segment—Honeymooners, Families, Female Office Workers, Students, Seniors, Incentive Travelers and Business/Technical Travelers—had declined since the first quarter of the year.
Specifically, using its Diffusion Index (DI)† measurement, JATA’s survey results indicates the outlook for the USA/Canada has not changed much from what it was in the first quarter of 2015. The survey results bode well, however, for Hawaii, which has the best rating of any destination listed in the survey report, although the state seems to benefit somewhat from schadenfreude—as interest in Europe dropped due to terrorist activity in the continent. Meanwhile, the overall outlook for overseas travel by Japanese is not much different than it was a year ago, in the first quarter of 2015, which registered a dramatic 41 percent decline in DI, and has remained there for the year, and is at essentially the same level for the first quarter of 2016.
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand (by Destinations)
| Destination | 1 Year Ago | 9 Months Ago | 6 Months Ago | 3 Months Ago | Current 3 mos. | Next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct.-Dec. 2014 | Jan-Mar 15 | Apr-Jun 15 | Jul-Sep 15 | Oct-Dec 15 | Jan-Mar 16 | |
| Hawaii | -10 | -11 | -9 | -6 | -13 | -9 |
| USA/Canada | -34 | -31 | -31 | -30 | -20 | -29 |
| Europe | -30 | -39 | -41 | -40 | -43 | -48 |
| Oceania | -45 | -39 | -43 | -47 | -34 | -32 |
| Micronesia | -27 | -31 | -33 | -37 | -37 | -33 |
| China | -75 | -73 | -64 | -62 | -64 | -65 |
| Asia | -13 | -13 | -5 | -5 | -17 | -18 |
| S. Korea | -73 | -72 | -66 | -66 | -74 | -74 |
| Overseas overall | -27 | -38 | -36 | -38 | -40 | -39 |
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand (by Market Segment)
| Destination | 1 Year Ago | 9 Months Ago | 6 Months Ago | 3 Months Ago | Current 3 months | Next 3 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct.-Dec. | Ago | Ago | Ago | Oct-Dec 15 | Jan-Mar 16 | ||
| 2014 | Jan-Mar 15 | Apr-Jun 15 | Jul-Sep 15 | ||||
| Honeymoon | -39 | -37 | -41 | -38 | -46 | -47 | |
| Family | -44 | -44 | -45 | -41 | -50 | -48 | |
| Female Office | -47 | -46 | -47 | -50 | -48 | -47 | |
| Worker | |||||||
| Student | -56 | -49 | -59 | -62 | -61 | -53 | |
| Senior* | -17 | -23 | -25 | -21 | -26 | -26 | |
| Incentive** | -32 | -39 | -31 | -31 | -39 | -41 | |
| Business-Technical | -9 | -23 | -14 | -15 | -17 | -25 |
** Incentive: Travel offered as an incentive to business and organization employees
SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents
†A Note on the Methodology and the DI (Diffusion Index): The JATA Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the”do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.” The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100. Survey period—Nov. 6-25, 2015; Registered companies—594; Responding companies—299; Response rate—50.3 percent
