Q: What is stubborn and deliberate? A: The UK Recovery

The latest monthly data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) tell us that both the overall British economy, as well as the inbound travel market from the UK to North America, are growing at consistent-yet-modest rates of recovery.

Overall, GDP grew by 0.4 percent in Q3 2015, ONS reported, a figure that was revised down from the previously published estimate of 0.5 percent. So far, growth averaged 0.5 percent during the first three quarters of 2015, following growth of 0.7 percent per quarter during 2014. GDP is now 6.1 percent higher than its level prior to the 2008-09 economic downturn and recession.

While it is doubtful that UK annual arrivals to the U.S. will reach the high of 4.7 million registered in 2000, the latest numbers posted for October 2015 for outbound traffic to North America show that—once the final numbers are in—will likely reflect a year-on-year increase in arrivals of four percent or more.

Other Highlights from the latest ONS reports:

—Overall, UK residents made 21.4 million visits abroad in the 3 months to October 2015, an 8 percent increase compared with the 3 months to October 2014.

—Visits to North America in October 2015 were actually down by 10 percent, from October.

—However, Visits to North America, year-on-year for the quarter ending in October rose by three percent.

Also, year-to-date (January thru October), the number of visits to North America by UK residents increased four percent (from 3.310 million to 3.350 million).

UK Resident Visits to North America
August thru October
(000s)