Absent up-do-date figures and after months of suggesting, on the basis of our own sources and anecdotal accounts, that some key overseas sources markets—Brazil, Germany and Australia, in particular—would show that Visit USA numbers would be flat to negative versus 2014, the latest (through June 2015) figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) showed unexpectedly robust year-to-date increases that challenge the agency’s own earlier full-year forecast for 2015 (See table in first article, “Inbound Report’s Outlook and Analysis for 2016 …”).
What happened? To use NTTO’s own language, “Technical problems are affecting I-94 Program data gathered by DHS/CBP and used by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)/National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) to calculate arrivals to the United States in 2015.” As NTTO makes changes in its methodology, it seems that any update or change would increase arrivals figures and projections if only because NTTO has a reputation for being conservative in its forecasts. At least, such an explanation seems plausible when reviewing the numbers below vs. the table in the first article.
First Half 2015 Arrivals
From Top 15 Overseas Markets
Plus Canada and Mexico
| Country/Market | First Half Arrivals, 2015 | Change vs. 1st Half 2014 |
|---|---|---|
| 1. UK | 2,100,826 | 13.80% |
| 2. JAPAN | 1,729,352 | 2.20% |
| 3. CHINA (EXCL HK) | 1,155,590 | 18.20% |
| 4. BRAZIL | 1,108,954 | 5.30% |
| 5. GERMANY | 1,024,557 | 13.50% |
| 6. SOUTH KOREA | 814,596 | 19.50% |
| 7. FRANCE | 796,800 | 4.30% |
| 8. AUSTRALIA | 657,800 | 10.60% |
| 9. INDIA | 585,448 | 18.70% |
| 10. ITALY | 430,403 | 5.60% |
| 11. COLOMBIA | 396,462 | 1.60% |
| 12. ARGENTINA | 357,452 | -1.00% |
| 13. SPAIN | 325,761 | 7.50% |
| 14. NETHERLANDS | 320,236 | 12.80% |
| 15. SWEDEN | 295,320 | 8.00% |
| CANADA | 10,311,336 | -6.10% |
| MEXICO | 8,412,012 | 8.30% |
| TOTAL OVERSEAS | 17,304,54 | 8.70% |
| TOTAL INTERNATIONAL | 36,027,862 | 3.90% |
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, National Travel and Tourism Office from the Summary of International Travel to the U.S. (I-94) report. |
