Confounding the wisdom of nearly everyone who follows the posting of international arrivals to the USA, overseas travel set a record, increasing by 10 percent last year, with our top overseas inbound source market, the UK, registered an 18 percent, year-on-year increase. This and other records that were set followed a stream of projections from industry sources, including the Inbound Report, that the year would show arrivals totals that were either flat vs. 2014, or at the very best, would increase marginally.
On the day the IPW 2016 in New Orleans concluded, after a year-long absence in the delivery of up-to-date arrivals data, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) made available its preliminary full-year numbers for last year as part of a comprehensive, 24-page report that covers a wide range of information on the preferences and practices of international travelers to the USA.
The availability of such data has been delayed since the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and its Customs and Borders (CBP) agency had difficulty beginning early last year in collecting and processing arrivals data. We never suspected that the changes in gathering data that we implemented by DHS would result in record numbers. Our source told us that some of the increase is due to more records because of automation but that one cannot tell how much is market shifts or new records.
In future issues, the Inbound Report will be analyzing specific elements of the NTTO report. In the meantime, here are arrivals data regarding key source markets.
Inbound Report’s
Top 15 Overseas Source Markets
Arrivals: 2014-2015
| Country/Market & Rank | 2014 Arrivals¹ | 2015 Arrivals² | % Change, 15 vs. 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. UK | 4,149,129 | 4,900,823 | 18% |
| 2. Japan | 3,629,244 | 3,758,297 | 4% |
| 3. China (excl. HK) | 2,189,781 | 2,591,333 | 18% |
| 4. Germany | 2,056,492 | 2,271,820 | 10% |
| 5. Brazil | 2,263,996 | 2,218,883 | -2% |
| 6. South Korea | 1,459,938 | 1,764,871 | 21% |
| 7. France | 1,658,345 | 1,752,611 | 6% |
| 8. Australia | 1,304,172 | 1,450,113 | 11% |
| 9. India | 962,133 | 1,125,783 | 17% |
| 10. Italy | 963,540 | 1,039,397 | 8% |
| 11. Colombia | 881,274 | 853,624 | -3% |
| 12. Argentina | 684.788 | 791,905 | 16% |
| 13. Spain | 707,733 | 752,823 | 6% |
| 14. Netherlands | 642,211 | 726,011 | 13% |
| 15. Venezuela | 616,037 | 590,733 | -4% |
| ¹ Revised | |||
| ² Preliminary | |||
| Note: 2015 projected changes reflect a combination of additional records counted in 2015 and market conditions. | |||
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office |
Inbound Report
Arrivals from North America*
2014-2015
| Country/Market | 2014 Arrivals¹ | 2015 Arrivals² | % Change, 15 vs. 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 23,013,691 | 20,704,701 | -10% |
| Canada by Air | 8,243,286 | 7,966,040 | -3% |
| Mexico | 17,069,818 | 18,4`3,649 | 8% |
| Mexico by Air³ | 2,486,381 | 2,649,481 | 6% |
| Total North America | 40,083,509 | 39,118,360 | -2% |
| * North America comprises Mexico and Canada | |||
| ¹ Revised | |||
| ² Preliminary | |||
| ³ Mexico Air data based on U.S. Department of Homeland Security I-94 arrival records. | |||
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office |
Inbound Report
Total Overseas and International Arrivals
2014-2015
| Market Segment | 2014 Arrivals¹ | 2015 Arrivals² | % Change, 15 vs. 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Overseas | 34,938,207 | 38,391,932 | 10% |
| Total International | 75,021,716 | 77,510,282 | 3% |
| ¹ Revised | |||
| ² Preliminary | |||
| ³ Mexico Air data based on U.S. Department of Homeland Security I-94 arrival records. | |||
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office |
Why Are the Numbers So Much Higher than Anticipated?
Some of the increase is due to more records because of automation. Problem is we cannot tell how much is market shifts or new records. Here is how NTTO explained the matter in the report’s appendix:
“The International Visitor Arrivals Program (I-94) is a core part of the U.S. travel and tourism statistical system. The I-94 Program provides official U.S. monthly and annual overseas visitor arrivals to the United States along with Mexico ‘Air’ visitor statistics. The National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) manages this program in cooperation with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Beginning in 2014, definitional changes were made to the I-94 Program to include one-night stay travelers. I-94 Program data now reflect better conformity with UNWTO’s one-plus night definition of a traveler. Prior to 2014, the Program’s definition of a traveler to the United States was a visitor that stayed two or more nights because of incomplete data on transiting air passengers with non-U.S. destinations and limited availability of departure date data on zero and one-night stays.
“With the inclusion of one-night stay travelers in 2014, year over year percent changes, 2014 vs. 2013, could overstate the percent change volume for any given overseas country. 2014 and 2013 U.S. arrivals data from overseas countries may not be comparable. But keep in mind that I-94 overseas arrival volumes in 2013 (and prior years) were understated. An accurate determination of how many nights were spent in the United States has not been possible until CBP’s I-94 Automation project.
“To account for the number of nights, the ‘departure’ record must be captured and matched to the arrival document. And in the past, the collection of the departure record was dependent on the rigor of airline gate agents and the ability of each departing visitor to tender their I-94 departure document. Evidence has indicated that a significant number of departure records were not turned in. But with the I-94 Automation project implemented at air and sea ports, it is possible to now be more inclusive of one night stays (travelers from overseas countries) given that the arrival-departure record match is now more complete and accurate. The I-94 is also benefitting from a substantial increase in departure data for visitors exiting the United States by land. Statistics Canada and Banco de Mexico visitors’ data are not affected-only travelers from overseas countries. 2014 and previous year’s U.S. arrivals data from both Canada and Mexico are comparable as one-night stay travelers are included.”
