Not since the Great Recession of 2008-09 registered a sharp downtown in travel to the USA by the Japanese—not to mention a decline in overall outbound international travel—have Japanese tour operators been as optimistic about their outlook for business as they are in the latest quarterly “Survey of Travel Market Trends “conducted by the Japanese Association of Travel Agents (JATA). Some highlights from the survey results include the following (Check out the “Note on Methodology” below):
—Overall demand for outbound travel is expected to increase by 11 points in the next three months, up to -29, and in six months’ time, to improve by 16 points, reaching -24.
—Travel companies selling overseas tours (-6) have seen a 12-point increase in demand
—During the July-September quarter, demand for America and Canada will head for a better position, expanding by 8 points.
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand
(by Destinations)†
| Destination | 1 Year Ago | 9 Months | 6 Months | 3 Months | Current 3 months | Next 3 months | Next 6 months Oct-Dec 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-June 2015 | Ago July-Sep '15 | Ago Oct-Dec 15 | Ago Jan-Apr '16 | Apr-June 16 | July-Sep 16 | ||
| Hawaii | -9 | -6 | -13 | -3 | -1 | -1 | |
| USA/Canada | -31 | -30 | -29 | -22 | -24 | -16 | -19 |
| Europe | -41 | -40 | -43 | -72 | -64 | -56 | -53 |
| Oceania | -43 | -47 | -34 | -17 | -24 | -21 | -20 |
| Micronesia | -33 | -37 | -37 | -24 | -28 | -28 | -23 |
| Asia | -5 | -20 | -17 | -9 | -8 | -6 | -3 |
| China | -64 | -62 | -64 | -63 | -61 | -63 | -60 |
| S. Korea | -66 | -86 | -74 | -64 | -54 | -52 | -49 |
| SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents | |||||||
In its latest survey by market segment, JATA added education travel and individual tours to the grid. This is explains why there are no data entries for the four quarters prior to the current quarter. In FY 2016, online travel agencies (OTA) will be included in the market trends survey with information/outlooks for the following two quarters.
Trends in Overseas Travel Demand
(by Market Segment)†
| Market Segment | 1 Year Ago | 9 Months Ago | 6 Months Ago | 3 Months Ago | Current 3 months | Next 3 months | Next 6 months Oct-Dec 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-June 2015 | July-Sep 15 | Oct-Dec 15 | Jan-Apr 15 | Apr-June 16 | July-Sep 16 | ||
| Honeymoon | -41 | -38 | -46 | -42 | -37 | -44 | -8 |
| Family | -46 | -41 | -50 | -45 | -42 | -27 | -24 |
| Female Office | -47 | -50 | -48 | -48 | -47 | -39 | -37 |
| Worker | |||||||
| Student | -59 | -62 | -61 | -48 | -59 | -50 | -52 |
| Senior* | -25 | -21 | -26 | -26 | -24 | -18 | -13 |
| Individual tours | - - | - - | - - | - - | -34 | -35 | -34 |
| Incentive** | -31 | -31 | -39 | -32 | -29 | -26 | -21 |
| Business-Technical | -14 | -15 | -27 | -21 | -14 | -14 | -11 |
| Education Travel | - - | - - | - - | - - | -38 | -38 | -31 |
| * Senior: Customers aged 60 or older | |||||||
| ** Incentive: Travel offered as an incentive to business and organization employees | |||||||
| SOURCE: Japan Association of Travel Agents |
†A Note on the Methodology and the DI (Diffusion Index): The JATA Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the “do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.” The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100. A total of 548 registered companies are surveyed.
REMINDER: With this issue, the Inbound Report will be published biweekly until after the USA’s Labor Day holiday (September 5, 2016), when we will resume publication on a weekly basis.
