Midst the glut of information released this month on the performance of the U.S. hotel industry, the picture for this year and next remains relatively clear: While some in the U.S. tour and travel industry believe that increased supply—which has kept pace with expanding leisure and business traveler demand for the past several years—will put pressure on hoteliers to stabilize rates and make it easier for international tour operators and U.S.-based receptive tour operators to secure allotments in key U.S. gateway markets, in New York City, the response seems to be: “Not here. Not this year. Not next year, either.”
For 2018, here is what the latest of the major analyses, from Deloitte, had to say: “While strong post-recession gains appear to be cooling off, the hotel sector is projected to sustain strong 5–6 percent growth throughout 2018, setting up the industry to hit a record-breaking $170 billion in gross bookings. Healthy business and leisure demand is helping the industry achieve strong fundamentals, including peaking average daily rates (+2.4 percent 2017 YTD October) and revenue per available room (+3.0 percent 2017 YTD October). Hovering around 66 percent, occupancy seems to have hit a peak. (Source: Deloitte: 2018 Travel and Hospitality Industry Outlook).
Steady, Decade-Long Increase in NYC Supply: The two tables below shows how the hotel room supply and the number of visitors to New York City have kept pace with each other over recent years.
New York City Hotel and Room Supply 2007 – 2017
Note: Includes hotel inventory as of April 2017. Source: STR, 2017
Meanwhile, the current development pipeline – featuring new entries and many updates – includes over 140 projects across the five boroughs representing the full spectrum of hotel experiences. New proposals are planned throughout the City, covering all five boroughs. While NYC & Co. records a number of “unnamed projects” at this time, most are already well above ground in their building as developers work with brands and management companies to find the best match. Global brands are also making NYC home (Riu, Pestana, ibis Styles and others.
Source: NYC & Company November, 2017
