In the course of its preparation of material for each and every upcoming issue, INBOUND listens to, watches, follows and/or reads its share of webinars, press releases, tourism data, e-papers and presentations and blog posts. But on Tuesday of last week, at just about 1p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, we stumbled over a quick-but-impactful colloquy by some highly regarded leaders in the travel and tourism industry in the U.S.—as they used the vehicle of LinkedIn. And not too long after the back-and-forth had begun, it was over. It was, basically, an afternoon and early evening of short, crisp dialogue. Not untypical among professionals in the travel and tourism industry who wrap up a conversation on their cell phones, laptop or tablet before their flight takes off. But on LinkedIn? Following is what we “overheard.”
Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics: “All our forecasts and scenarios are moored to the non-negotiable assumption that travel will fully recover. The pandemic will end. The drivers of travel – income growth, demographic shifts, the importance of meetings and the intrinsic value of a vacation – will still be intact on the other side. History supports the premise; recovery is inevitable.”
Rafat Ali, CEO & founder, Skift: “Words to that effect also said by music industry, newspaper industry and video industry in the last two decades as well. ‘Non-negotiable assumption’ seems like a strange hill to stand on for an economist …”
“The demise of travel has been a popular pundit talking point before. After 9/11, ‘People won’t fly again in the same numbers.’ During the great financial crises, ‘Meetings will never return to their former glory.’ These predictions have not aged well. Confidence was restored and travelers came back.”
Adam Sacks: “The demise of travel has been a popular pundit talking point before. After 9/11, ‘People won’t fly again in the same numbers.’ During the great financial crises, ‘Meetings will never return to their former glory.’ These predictions have not aged well. Confidence was restored and travelers came back. Around the world, we have seen this same narrative play out dozens of times. SARS, Middle East unrest, terrorist attacks, tsunamis, earthquakes, and hurricanes have all buffeted our industry. During any crisis, it is natural to wonder if this is the one that represents a sea change or a ‘new normal.’ But history would advise us all to not forget that travel prevailed through every crisis to date, moving from survival to recovery to flourishing each time.”
Clayton Reid, CEO, MMGY Global: “Great point Adam. Not only is travel recovery inevitable, but that recovery will be faster and more pronounced than many are suggesting.”
Robert (Bob) Adams, senior managing director, travel/hospitality, gaming & entertainment-data/analytics/MarTech Solutions at Valid: “Totally agree!”
Brad Dean, CEO, Discover Puerto Rico: “Thanks for the reminder, Adam. COVID or no COVID, travel still changes lives & shapes communities.”
Phil Bruno, creator at Home E-Course: “Thanks for the hope, much needed!’
Christopher Heywood, executive vice president, global communications, New York City & Company:
“Pent-up demand will hopefully help accelerate the industry’s recovery!”
Chakradhar Munjuluri, product manager third party distribution, Choice Hotels International: “The other industries mentioned are still there—music, news, video—and so will travel. This is an opportunity for disruptions in the delivery similar to what was seen in other industries, but the core product will remain.”
Derek Schlager, director of business relations, Namu Travel Group: “We will always have negative people that enjoy being right for a while.”
Suzanne Wolko, change management consultant, Arden Road: “I wish I could be that positive -I don’t think it will fully recover to 2019 levels and not likely in time to save some local businesses tied to travel. There’s additional risk involved with business travel and meetings and increased ROI with video so that will change biz travel patterns, volume, and appetite. Leisure has a different road to travel in the short term but once borders are open without quarantine, that will be first to show promise IMO.”
Cole Turay, territory lead (sales, BD >M), Particle: “Completely agree with Suzanne Wolko, Adam Sacks and Christopher Heywood! Hopefully a COVID-9 vaccine is GA in the latter half of 2021 or earlier, then pent-up demand and income growth will expedite leisure travel recovery, but business travel recovery will take a few years … based on historical travel ‘pauses,’ wonder when Adam predicts business travel will return to 2019 levels?”
Nandini Nadkarni, research consultant: “Yes, recovery is inevitable. The travel landscape will change and look different. Who will survive? What will it take for the recovery to happen? These and more will be the negotiable assumptions as we think about recovery.”
James Hepple, managing director, Tourism Analytics: “Adam, I don’t know. It will recover only if the underlying discretionary spend recovers. If the major source markets slide into a deep recession or even depression recovery is not so certain.”
Benjamin Chambers, CEO & Founder, Elevation Wealth: “Well said Adam! The world will move on, innovation will continue. Here’s hoping our boys will get their Senior varsity season in!”
Mark Mekki, co-founder, Bond—Building Digital Communities: “Let’s be optimistic that it will … but a ‘non-negotiable assumption’ sounds like a euphemism for ‘I really hope because the alternative is unthinkable.’”
Ibrahim Osta, director, Middle East & North Arica, Chemonics International: “That’s certain. Hope it comes sooner than later. We all have a role to play in this recovery.”
John Barranco, director of business development, Morgan & Co. Media Agency: “So ready to travel!”
James Rice, consultant for hotels, convention centers, hospitality & the special events industry: “Agree, and as with Monopoly, we just have to have patience in how this all comes back together. We have to get F.I.T. right first.”
Robert West, manager, World West Consulting LLC: “Adam – I thought I had lost track of you since the WEFA days and the great project in The Bahamas. Want to catch up?”
Dave Looby, president & CEO, Minneapolis Northwest Tourism: “The question is, how long can many tourism related businesses, destinations and tourism professionals wait out the storm and financially survive to reach the other side?”
Candace Carr Strauss, CEO, Big Sky Chamber of Commerce: “AMEN, Adam Sacks. Now look into your crystal ball and tell me when you think that will be—lol.”
