BOM sees a BOOM? “Here in Brazil, our mantra is ‘vaccination, vaccination, vaccination,’” said José Guilherme Alcorta, CEO of PANROTAS, which is generally regarded as the authoritative travel trade publication in Brazil,” adding that the nation’s tour and travel industry is “looking forward to return to the skies (and railroads, seas, trails and roads) and the May edition of the Brazilian Overview Monthly (BOM) Report brings some good news. We are almost there.”
Alcorta made his remark as he introduced the May 2021 edition of the BOM Report, which has become a must-read publication for those in the international tourism industry, as well those who study and follow it as a key index of the nation’s economic condition. The PANROTAS partner in the Overview is FecomércioSP, a São Paulo-based business research organization.
No Recession Here: A normal view of the economic landscape in Brazil might focus on the overall economy. But not here—even though the latest data show that the country is recovering from a debilitating recession last year that coincided with the impact of the global pandemic that was brought on by the COVID-19 virus. Brazil’s gross domestic product contracted 4.1 percent in 2020, the biggest annual recession since the series began in 1996.
And yet, this month, some of the world’s top banks this month projected an increase in GDP of 4.5 percent. But, the May BOM Report, since it does have a focus on the travel and tourism economy, focused on the vaccination issue.
—There are two reasons for this. First, Brazil government and its attendant apparatus, have been well behind other major nations of the world in vaccinating its people against the COVID virus. As of this writing, Brazil’s adult population is expected to be vaccinated in the second half of the year—between September and October, if there are no delays. But there is resistance to the most readily available vaccine in Brazil. As one account described the situation: “Politicization, transparency issues and some incomplete trial data in Brazil contributed to a lack of trust in CoronaVac there.”
—So, second, even if the pace picks up, other nations might not recognize the CoronaVac vaccine, because there has been some question as to CoronaVac’s efficacy. As the website nature.com put it: “Data on CoronaVac from clinical trials and national vaccination campaigns have also emerged, with mixed results. Trials from Brazil and Turkey have revealed efficacy figures of 50.7 percent and 83.5 percent, respectively.”
Vaccination Tourism: One impact of the muddled vaccination situation has been an apparent increase in the number of Brazilians who are going abroad for their COVID vaccinations—although there are no hard data on the situation. Meanwhile …
—International flights to and from Brazil, which are an integral component to tourism’s economic impact in the nation, are increasing by small numbers. American Airlines and Delta Air Lines are still below pre-pandemic levels, while United reached 70 percent of pre-pandemic levels in May.
—CVC Corp, leading travel group in Brazil, predicts a sales boom from September on, and announced block seats in airlines to international destinations such as Tueky, Egypt and Dubai. Domestic travel, including cruises by the Brazilian coast, are the higher bets.
—A recent Pulso Turismo survey conducted by TRVL LAB* showed that Brazilians will only travel abroad and even in Brazil after being vaccinated. The survey was carried out with 369 travelers from Brazil, and there are high rates of people who will not travel or take part in events until they are vaccinated (For this research, an online panel was conducted with 369 Brazilian travelers from all regions of Brazil who made at least one trip in the last 24 months.): 76 percent answered that they totally or partially agree with the statement in the case of events for 100 people or more; the rate remains high for international travel (70 percent will only do it after vaccinated) and it is also valid for domestic travel (64 percent).
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* TRVL LAB is a travel market intelligence laboratory. Through conducting and disseminating research qualitative and quantitative aspects of the tourism market, creates and transmits relevant knowledge to generate initiatives and the positive transformation of the industry. It is an initiative of PANROTAS and MAPIE, which share the same purpose of constantly investigating tourism and contributing to its development. TRVL LAB—a new analytical project launched last year by PANROTAS and MAPIE, a hospitality and travel consulting firm which is based in Paraná, Curitaba, about 250 miles south of São Paulo.
Have something you want to share with PANROTAS? Then contact José Guilherme Alcorta here: guilherme@panrotas.com.br
