The one fact that comes to mind quickly when reviewing the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) most recently released monthly report of the Top 15 Overseas Source Markets for inbound tourism is whether LATAM countries will be able to sustain their strong position in the global and U.S. marketplace. Or, are the first three quarters of 2021 an anomaly that will disappear from the data once the marketplace returns to its pre-pandemic health.
Consider the following:
● NTTO’s numbers for September and for the first three quarters of 2021 tell us that 13 of the Top 15 overseas country source markets are LATAM. The two non-LATAM nations are China and India. For all of 2021 through September, the 15 are almost the same.
As for overall share among the world’s geographic regions, the figures tell much the same story:
● 57.8 percent of overseas arrivals for the month of September were from LATAM countries (includes the Caribbean)
● 63.8 percent of overseas arrivals to the United States year-to-date (through September) were from LATAM countries (includes the Caribbean).
What explains all this? Mostly, is has to do with policy, geography and lift capacity. The nations of South and Central America have had pandemic-related travel restrictions that were less restrictive than those of the United States. And some LATAM nations—such as Panama, Colombia and Mexico—have developed route structures that make them ideal for connecting flights to destinations with carriers that have been able to stay active.
What it could mean? It is possible that the non-stop activity—LATAM carriers stayed active during the Pandemic, albeit at reduced levels—could continue, but probably not at the same level of share as in 2021, Still it means that these carriers will not have to endure the pain and trials of re-hiring and, in some cases, re-certifying employees.
When will we know? Anecdotal accounts from abroad suggest that a crush of inbound activity should begin in the wake of this week’s opening of U.S. borders to vaccinated travelers. But we will have to wait to see what the level of Q1 activity in 2022 is—against the same period in 2019—before a U.S. inbound tourism industry is certifiable, and whether LATAM has increased its share of overseas arrivals to the USA beyond the Pandemic.
Arrivals to U.S. from Top 15 Overseas
Country Source Markets for
September 2021
| Country Market & Overseas Rank | Arrivals | % Change vs September 2020 |
| 1. COLOMBIA | 71,755 | 914.5% |
| 2. ECUADOR | 41,484 | 280.6% |
| 3. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC | 38,948 | 141.1% |
| 4. CHINA, PRC | 34,011 | 1594.6% |
| 5. ISRAEL | 33,171 | 521.6% |
| 6. ARGENTINA | 28,341 | 659.6% |
| 7. PERU | 28,252 | 8333.4% |
| 8. CHILE | 25,194 | 282.7% |
| 9. INDIA | 23,000 | 57.7% |
| 10. COSTA RICA | 22,246 | 770.7% |
| 11. GUATEMALA | 20,482 | 508.0% |
| 12. SOUTH KOREA | 20,400 | 259.3% |
| 13. VENEZUELA | 17,668 | 1171.1% |
| 14. EL SALVADOR | 17,224 | 705.2% |
| 15. HONDURAS | 15,814 | 150.5% |
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, I&A, National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) I-94 Program
Arrivals to U.S. from Top 15 Overseas Country Markets
Year-to-Date (through September) 2021
| Country Market & Overseas Rank | Arrivals | % Change vs YTD thru Sept. 2020 |
| 1. COLOMBIA | 753,975 | 418.4% |
| 2. PERU | 308,092 | 360.0% |
| 3. ECUADOR | 291,769 | 184.4% |
| 4. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC | 273,463 | 169.6% |
| 5. INDIA | 255,486 | -8.2% |
| 6. GUATEMALA | 193,787 | 324.0% |
| 7. ARGENTINA | 192,865 | 21.1% |
| 8. COSTA RICA | 176,932 | 159.7% |
| 9. HONDURAS | 174,832 | 314.1% |
| 10. CHINA, PRC | 155,179 | -58.3% |
| 11. VENEZUELA | 150,117 | 166.7% |
| 12. ISRAEL | 137,990 | 92.6% |
| 13. EL SALVADOR | 132,764 | 308.4% |
| 14. SOUTH KOREA | 114,039 | -73.0% |
| 15. JAMAICA | 113,316 | 100.7% |
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, I&A, National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) I-94 Program
Arrivals to U.S. from Overseas World Regions
September 2021
| World Region | Number of Arrivals | 2021 Share of Market | % Change vs. 2020 |
| TOTAL OVERSEAS | 714,997 | 100.0% | 343.6% |
| WESTERN EUROPE | 78,287 | 10.9% | 306.1% |
| EASTERN EUROPE | 22,674 | 3.2% | 181.6% |
| ASIA | 119,157 | 16.7% | 244.9% |
| MIDDLE EAST | 61,687 | 8.6% | 330.4% |
| AFRICA | 15,313 | 2.1% | 295.7% |
| OCEANIA | 3,643 | 0.5% | 105.9% |
| SOUTH AMERICA | 239,822 | 33.5% | 607.3% |
| CENTRAL AMERICA | 91,156 | 12.7% | 463.3% |
| CARIBBEAN | 83,258 | 11.6% | 184.8% |
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, I&A, National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) I-94 Program
Arrivals to U.S. from Overseas World Regions
Year-to-Date (through September) 2021
| World Region | Number of Arrivals | 2021 Share of Market | % Change YTD vs. 2020 |
| TOTAL OVERSEAS | 5,447,366 | 100.0% | -18.0% |
| WESTERN EUROPE | 503,457 | 9.2% | -76.5% |
| EASTERN EUROPE | 156,289 | 2.9% | -28.7% |
| ASIA | 822,865 | 15.1% | -59.7% |
| MIDDLE EAST | 352,519 | 6.5% | 58.6% |
| AFRICA | 109,488 | 2.0% | 24.4% |
| OCEANIA | 28,500 | 0.5% | -88.6% |
| SOUTH AMERICA | 2,018,668 | 37.1% | 87.0% |
| CENTRAL AMERICA | 801,142 | 14.7% | 221.3% |
| CARIBBEAN | 654,438 | 12.0% | 87.3% |
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, I&A, National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) I-94 Program
