Speculation Runs Rampant Over Imminent Kuoni Sale
Q: What is stubborn and deliberate? A: The UK Recovery
The latest monthly data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) tell us that both the overall British economy, as well as the inbound travel market from the UK to North America, are growing at consistent-yet-modest rates of recovery.
Overall, GDP grew by 0.4 percent in Q3 2015, ONS reported, a figure that was revised down from the previously published estimate of 0.5 percent. So far, growth averaged 0.5 percent during the first three quarters of 2015, following growth of 0.7 percent per quarter during 2014. GDP is now 6.1 percent higher than its level prior to the 2008-09 economic downturn and recession.
While it is doubtful that UK annual arrivals to the U.S. will reach the high of 4.7 million registered in 2000, the latest numbers posted for October 2015 for outbound traffic to North America show that—once the final numbers are in—will likely reflect a year-on-year increase in arrivals of four percent or more.
Other Highlights from the latest ONS reports:
—Overall, UK residents made 21.4 million visits abroad in the 3 months to October 2015, an 8 percent increase compared with the 3 months to October 2014.
—Visits to North America in October 2015 were actually down by 10 percent, from October.
—However, Visits to North America, year-on-year for the quarter ending in October rose by three percent.
Also, year-to-date (January thru October), the number of visits to North America by UK residents increased four percent (from 3.310 million to 3.350 million).
UK Resident Visits to North America
August thru October
(000s)
Month | 2014 | 2015 |
---|---|---|
August | 458 | 550 |
September | 453 | 450 |
October | 445 | 400 |
Total for Quarter | 1,356 | 1,400 |
Source: ONS |
These Charts Show Just How Much the Strong dollar Has Hurt Inbound Business From Canada
A fairly detailed survey of tourism-related businesses on both sides the Canada-USA border shows that the weakened Canadian dollar (or loon) has had a negative impact on the nuber Canadian travelers who make the short drive to the United States for shopping, overnight and weekend stays. (An estimated 75 percent of the Canadian population lives within 100 miles of the U.S. border.) More than a quarter of surveyed tourism-related businesses on the New York side of St. Lawrence River in the Thousand Lakes region said that the 2015 travel season was worse than the previous year. The correlation between the decline of the Canadian dollar and Visit USA traffic from seems inescapable.
Start with the key variable—the currency exchange rate. This year, 2016, started off with the loonie valued at $0.71 to the U.S. dollar (down 14 percent vs. last year and down 24 percent from January 2014, when it was at 93 cents).
The survey—it is an annual undertaking conducted by the 1000 Islands International Tourism Council, in Alexandria Bay, New York, just across the St. Lawrence River from Ontario and about 100 miles south of Ottawa—was sent this past fall to 510 tourism-related businesses in the council’s database, yielding a total of 214 responses that included 124 from Jefferson County businesses, 76 from Ontario businesses and 14 that didn’t identify their location. It contained a variety of questions about the six-month travel season from May through October. No narrative is necessary when one reviews some of the survey report’s key tables, which appear below.
Discussing the impact of the weak Canadian dollar, Gary S. DeYoung, executive director of the 1000 Islands Council, told the Watertown Daily Times, which reported on the survey, “When it dips below 80 cents, they’re paying more for stuff in the U.S.,” adding that passenger statistics at the 1000 Islands Bridge show Canadians crossed the border fewer times than last year. The trend benefited Ontario businesses, he said, which retained Canadian shoppers and lured more Americans who capitalized on the weak Canadian dollar.
“Obviously, we were fighting an uphill battle in terms of the dollar exchange,” he added, suggesting that many Canadians decided it wasn’t worth it to cross the border to shop.
Brand USA Fourth MegaFam to Feature National Parks
FAM IV: Buoyed by the by the success of the first three iterations of the undertaking, Brand USA is planning MegaFam 2016—a multi-destination familiarization tour for 100 travel agents from the UK and Ireland—that will focus on the United States’ outdoors, especially its national parks, and incorporate new states into the itinerary.
The 2016 trip, scheduled for May 11-19, continues the practice of going “Beyond the Gateways,” involving seven different itineraries, featuring 18 states, including Alaska and Hawaii for the first time. Coinciding with the U.S. National Park Service’s centennial celebration this year, each itinerary will have the travel agents experience the USA’s great outdoors has to offer by visiting a national park.
The new 2016 itineraries are: Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland/Florida, Georgia, South Carolina/Colorado, New Mexico/Nevada, Utah, Arizona/Washington, Oregon/Alaska/ and Hawaii.
The participating agents will return to California for a final event, where they can share their experiences, educate each other on their itineraries and better sell all the destinations when returning home.
Agents vie for a spot on the trip by booking flights to the United States with BUSA’s partners, American Airlines and British Airways, and earning specialist badges on the agent-training program, USADiscoveryProgram.co.uk. The training program educates and supplies travel agents with the knowledge and assurance they need in order to sell more of the USA as a holiday destination, and to ensure the United States is kept at top of the mind—with both agents and their customers.
According to the agency, in 2014, agents vying for a MegaFam spot booked over 12,000 flights to and within the USA, up from the previous year’s 5,500 flights. In 2015, that number increased to 22,000 passengers booking travel during the entry period of January to early April.
Second Film to Star Much of United States: The Brand USA giant screen film, “National Parks Adventure” launches worldwide next month (Feb. 12) but the pre-opening reaction to trailers and extended trailers from those who have seen them has been so enthusiastic—especially from the theatre owners who saw a version at last September’s annual conference of the Giant Screen Theatre Association—and advance sales have been so robust, that Brand USA has already approved a second big screen film that will premiere in two years.
“The Next Big Film,” as it was referred to in materials made available at BUSA’s last board of directors meeting, will be titled “America’s Treasures,” which will be “a cross-country and cosmopolitan journeys through the USA, focusing on popular culture, music, entertainment, and innovation.” One reason the board took the action was to be able to retain the services of MacGillivray Freeman, the Laguna Beach, Calif.-based producer of “National Parks Adventure.” The company has created a string of award-winning big screen hits going back to “To Fly”—the IMAX film that played to full house audiences for years during the mid-1970s at the National Air and Space Museum in Washington, D.C.
Because the producer’s own calendar has upcoming long-term commitments, the board wanted to begin negotiations with the film company as soon as possible, in order to ensure a February 2018 launch of the new film.
Financially, the film is a win-win for Brand USA, which put up no cash for the effort—it is being presented by Expedia, Inc. and Subaru of America, Inc. and is supported by other contributions—but will generate millions of lasting impressions worldwide. Timed to coincide with the centennial of the U.S. National Parks in 2016, the film is expected to generate more han 4 million movie-goers by the end of 2018 and, according BUSA estimates, more than $42 million in international media reach value.
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