While inbound traffic to the USA from Canada is projected by the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) by eight percent—it is down by 16 percent for the first four months of 2016—inbound traffic from the United States to Canada is up by nearly 10 percent, year-on-year, through September and air arrivals from the U.S. for the same period are up by more than 17 percent for the same period, according to figures released by Destination Canada (DC). The outlook is positive enough that the organization might achieve its goal of having 20 million international visitors a year by 2020 as early as this year.

About 1.4 million overnight visitors to Canada arrived from the US in September 2016, up 11.5 percent over September 2015, bringing total US arrivals in the first three quarters of 2016 up to 11.2 million (+9.7 percent over the same period of 2015). This was the best September for US arrivals since 2005, and the best January-September performance since 2006.

Overall, arrivals from all international markets, including Destination Canada’s 11 targeted international markets (USA, France, Germany, UK, Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico), except for Brazil, are registering health increases in travel volume to Canada. From January to September 2016, Canada welcomed 16.1 million overnight visitors, including 14.3 million from the with several of these markets posting exceptional performances over the first three quarters of 2016, most notably South Korea (+32.8 percent, China (+23.7 percent), Mexico (+18.6 percent), the UK (+15.7 percent) and Australia (+13.6 percent).

 

Outbound Travel: The data furnished from Statistics Canada may be scored slightly differently than that furnished by NTTO, but those data we do have confirm—from both markets—that Canadian traffic to the U.S. is off by a significant amount in 2016. NTTO’s forecast has Canadian arrivals down 8 percent for the year, while Statistics Canada has the number at -8.9 percent through September.

 

 

Note: The figures are preliminary estimates and are subject to change.

Source: Statistics Canada, International Travel Survey

 

What Does it Mean, and for Which Market? Those for whom national accounts are important have much statistical fodder to rummage through with the latest report from Destination Canada. But for much of the world, the USA and Canada comprise one North American market. And given the symbiotic relationship of the travel and tourism industry in the two countries, where there is cross ownership of tourism-related businesses as well as cross border itineraries, the disparity is less important. However, U.S. businesses clustered near key points along the U.S.-Canada border, or within day-trip range of Canadian travelers, have suffered substantially by the drop in visitors—especially among those who engage in shopping excursions—from Canada, due primarily to the weakened Canadian dollar (loon) vs. the U.S. dollar.

The loonie, which traded at about $1.03 in 2012, sunk to less than $0.70 near the end of 2015 and is still trading about $0.75.  (See chart below)

Canadian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar

 

Source: Xe.com

If the percentage decline, year-over-year, in the number of visitors coming to the United States from Canada continues at the rate struck for the first quarter of 2016 obtains for the rest of the year, the market will have shrunk by more than 5 million visitors over two years. This is just one of the findings revealed in the 2016 first quarter arrivals report recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO).

Other findings that stick in the observer’s eye include a Q1 snapshot that confirms a falloff of close to 25 percent in arrivals from Brazil, as well as small, single-digit declines in some key European markets—declines that were not unexpected, according to a number of industry observers.

First, the tables containing data on top overseas sources markets, as well as Canada and Mexico.

 

Some Q1 After-Thoughts:

—Due almost entirely to a week Canadian dollar vs. the U.S. dollar, Canadian visits to the USA totaled 20.7 million in 2015—down 10 percent from 23 million in 2014. A year-long rate of decrease of 13.4 percent, as it was for the first quarter of 2016, would mean a further reduction of 2.77 million—a down to 17.9 million. In addition to wreaking havoc on those U.S. travel suppliers and destinations that court Canadian travelers, a loss of 5 million visitors hurts the goal of Brand USA of reaching 100 million annual international visitors to the U.S. by 2021.

—As for Brazil, there is little in the data to cheer the country’s travel trade or U.S. receptive operators who sell Visit USA product to Brazil. The attitude seems best expressed in a popular Lee Hazelwood song from the 1960s: “I’ve been down so long it looks like up to me.” The nation’s economy fell into a recession in the third quarter of 2014 and is about to enter its third year. One report has suggested the current recession will be the worst the nation has experienced since 1901.

Add to the economic data the soap opera that Brazil’s political scene has become, and it is small wonder that Q1 arrivals fell by 24.4 percent vs. Q1 2015. On the bright side, several business news publications have recently published commentaries that see the dark clouds lifting on the Brazilian horizon and consumer confidence in the country increased in August—the fifth consecutive month in which this measure has done so.

—It is possible that the small percentage point declines for Germany and France were related to several terrorist attacks in Western Europe and in Turkey that stoked a fear of travel among Germans. What data that have been made available for travel bookings for the subsequent second and third quarters of 2016 suggest that activity has been, at best, flat.

Vancouver has just been named Canada’s most expensive city based on the results of a new survey released by CheapHotels.org. Lodging costs in Canada served as the basis for the distinction. The survey covered hotel rates across 30 main urban destinations in Canada.

The survey established for each Canadian city destination the average rate an overnight guest can expect to pay for the cheapest available double room there during the month of June. June was intentionally chosen for comparative purposes since most destinations in Canada reach their highest average rates then.

Vancouver, British Columbia topped the rankings with an average overnight rate of $164 (CAD) for its least expensive double room. It must be pointed out that the survey excluded hotels that were not centrally located, that were rated less than three stars and that had earned an overall negative average guest rating.

Coming in second on the survey was Canada’s largest city, Toronto, Ontario. An average nightly rate of $152 put it number two among all destinations considered. Rounding out the Top 3 was Halifax, Nova Scotia. At just a few dollars cheaper, $148 per night, it came in third on the survey.

Cost of a Night’s Stay in Key Destinations in Canada

Destination & Rank	Rate $Can	Rate $US¹
1. Vancouver, British Columbia	$164	$126
2. Toronto, Ontario	$152	$116
3. Halifax, Nova Scotia	$148	$113
4. St. John’s, Newfoundland	$146	$111
5. Calgary, Alberta	$142	$108
6. St. Catharines, Ontario	$138	$105
7. Kingston, Ontario	$137	$104
8. Richmond, British Columbia	$134	$102
9. Laval, Quebec	$127	$97
10. Windsor, Ontario	$127	$97
11. Winnipeg, Manitoba	$124	$95
12. Hamilton, Ontario	$122	$93
13. Galineau, Quebec	$122	$93
14. Vaughan, Ontario	$121	$92
15. Regina, Ontario	$121	$92
16. London, Ontario	$119	$91
17. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan	$118	$90
18. Kelowna, British Columbia	$117	$89
19. Quebec City, Quebec	$116	$88
20. Ottawa, Ontario	$113	$86
21. Montreal, Quebec	$112	$85
22. Trois Riveres, Quebec	$112	$85
23. Thunder Bay, Ontario	$111	$85
24. Sudbury, Ontario	$111	$85
25. Barrie, Ontario	$108	$82
26. Edmonton, Alberta	$106	$81
27. Surrey, British Columbia	$106	$81
28. Markham, Ontario	$94	$72
29. Brampton, Ontario	$86	$66
30. Mississauga, ,Ontario	$85	$65
¹ Conversion figures prepared by Inbound Report, using xe.com. Figure is rounded to nearest dollar.
Source: CheapHotels.org

¹ Conversion figures prepared by Inbound Report, using xe.com.  Figure is rounded to nearest dollar.

Source: CheapHotels.org

 

A Note on Methodology: The table compares the cost of lodging for 30 city destinations in Canada for the month of June 2016. The survey considered all 18 destinations with a population of greater than 250,000 as well as 12 popular cities with a population of greater than 100,000. The prices displayed reflect the average rate for each city’s least expensive available double room (minimum 3 stars) for the time period of June 1st to 30th, 2016.