From the perspective of a veteran operator.

By the time the year 2022 fades into 2023, the professionals who market and promote the Visit USA product abroad will witness some changes in the way they do business. But it’s likely that many of the core tenets of the process will likely remain the same, according to Jeff Karnes.

Karnes should know. Since before the 21st century began, he has been executive vice president of New World Travel, operating out of its Los Angeles headquarters. (Its U.S. headquarters are in New York City, where the company’s president, Peter Dorner, is based. The operator is part of Germany’s DER Touristik and its agencies, which send scores of thousands of visitors to the U.S. each year. The company is owned by the German retailer REWE, one of the largest in the world.)

Germany and the scores of thousands of visitors it sends to the USA, is a most important market. The latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) in Washington D.C. show that, for the first half year of 2022, Germany ranked Number 3 among overseas source markets, sending more than 570 thousand visitors to the USA.

For its clients in Germany—and, in fact, for much of Europe—Karnes told INBOUND with a slight smile, it is likely that that the holiday in the United States is going to remain, largely, a-two-week fly-drive-with-stops-in- San Francisco-Los Angeles-and-Las Vegas-along with-some-familiar-national-parks.

What prompted the characterization of German visitors to the USA was, in part, the news coverage given to the slide of the euro to parity vs. the U.S. dollar for the first time in 20 years.

Did you hear about the currency crash? The slide in the value of the euro against the U.S. dollar that began last year crashed through a barrier of sorts last week as the two currencies are at par for the first time in 20 years. Will it have any impact on the rest of the 2022 holiday season? We’ll have to wait and see.

Time magazine boiled everything down to a paragraph: “The drop in the euro’s value results from recent global economic challenges–a war in Ukraine, supply-chain shocks, inflation and pandemic inspired stagnation, all of which are hitting Europe much harder than the U.S. Even so, the implications of the currency move will reverberate across America and the E.U. for years, experts say.” Click here for complete article.

A Ten-Year Portrait

U.S. Dollar v. Euro and British Pound*

* Figures from x-rates.com. Based on mid-market day for the 20th of each July. Table by INBOUND. Numbers rounded to nearest U.S. cent.

The table includes the UK’s pound, which is an integral part of the mix above and the two currencies—the euro and the pound—comprise the medium of exchange for at least two-out-of-five visitors to the United States.

Inclusion of the pound in the table also serves as an economic history book of sorts, during which the reader will see episodes of stagnation/recession, along with a 20-plus percent drop of the pound vs. the U.S. dollar in the aftermath of the June 2016 “Brexit” vote that triggered the departure of the UK from the European Union (EU). Still, both the EU and the UK survived.

And what about the post-pandemic tourism industry? Beyond any impact of the euro-vs.-pound-vs.-dollar discussion, there was still the ongoing recovery from the global pandemic that was triggered by the COVID crisis.

For starters, Karnes told us that he expects a “a modest” recovery for the inbound tourism industry to the United States. And he went on to make a number of points, some of which are noted here:

● Consumer behavior in the post-pandemic marketplace is telling. Consider how the visitors from different markets and countries have been accommodating their “pent-up” demand of travelers.  

Professionals in the travel trade are finding out that the German consumer is somewhat conservative and methodical in planning a holiday, as opposed to Americans, many of whom are last-minute or impulsive, “do it now” bookers. The concept or practice of a static contract is well-known to the German traveler and operator. For the U.S. traveler? Not so.

● Will the second half of 2022 experience a difference? Yes. One change already apparent is that travelers to the U.S. from Germany and other European source markets have begun to explore destinations and experiences that are further away from large cities and urban hubs. Meanwhile, Americans are “re-enjoying” reliable favorites among the attractions and destinations that they are visiting.

● Midst all the “busy-ness,” consumers are sharing a now familiar lament. Yes, more Germans are now using OTAs to book shorter trips. However, those who assemble their own holidays online find out that they are all alone if something goes wrong. If one books through DER or other operators, they have backup and 24-7 service operators provide. 

● Hotels represent a real challenge for some industry partners. While hotel room rates are back at pre-pandemic levels and healthy occupancy rates have returned, services and amenities have not. Beleaguered by an industry-wide shortage of employees, reports of reservations that are missing and unkept beds have become a fact—and they are not infrequent. There have been some instances in which hotels have simply lost reservations.

● For likely the same reasons affecting operators, agents and consumers are experiencing a shortage of available airline flights. It seems to be a chronic condition: There simply are not enough skilled workers to maintain the planes or operate the highly computerized infrastructure used by air traffic.  

● Perhaps it’s a matter of a safe or a safer harbor for those who like breaches, but it doesn’t seem to matter to those enjoying the experience, as the numbers of travelers going to Hawaii are “through the roof.”

● And again, expect the industry’s recovery to be modest. This means that the pace and volume of sales might not reach pre-pandemic levels next year, 2023. In other words, the industry should work to make 2024 the next 2019.

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A note: for INBOUND, a conversation with Karnes is a refreshing experience. Not only does he know what he’s talking about, but he does so with a refreshing courtesy—in a way that makes one want to use the archaic word “courtly.” If you would like to carry on the conversation with the courtly Jeff Karnes, you can reach him at jeff.karnes@newworldtravel.com.

Not since the dark days of the global pandemic set itself in place in March 2020 has the outlook for inbound travel to the USA from Germany been so encouraging. Reporting on monthly travel agency sales released by, the travel trade publication fvw l TravelTalk noted that sales continue to grow in April, according to the monthly report of the ta.ts travel agency mirror (tats = Travel Agency Technologies & Services): “The tourism business is recovering noticeably. This shows (in) the sales development in April. The gap in sales compared to the pre-corona year 2019 is also getting smaller and smaller, as the current tats travel agency mirror shows.”

Because the tats travel agency mirror is a retail tool, its survey of retail travel agencies measures the immediacy of the travel industry’s sales—not projected activity by wholesalers. This year, it has shown continued industry sales year-on-year.

But it’s not just travel agency sales that are making the tourism industry in Germany breathe easier; it is the ancillary activity of the industry. Tour operators have been staging road show educational sessions and—as are other economic sectors—scrambling to fill job slots.

Another sign that the health of the industry is coming back came was the announcement by TUI (the largest tour operator in Germany and Europe) that the company has started paying back the €700 million ($740 million) which was loaned mainly by KfW. (It is part of the KfW Bankengruppe, a German state-owned investment and development bank.) TUI said the “rescue umbrella” was important during the pandemic but that now was “the right time to reduce the first credit lines.”

As well, other German tour operators have taken steps to add to, or reorganize and/or increase sales staff. And at the industry’s largest international marketplace, IPW, which takes place June 4-8, Germany has one of the largest delegation of buyers scheduled to attend.

And then, as far as the U.S. overseas international travel market is concerned, there is level of business that is already sending German travelers to the USA. In the latest report from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office, German arrivals to the United States totaled 78 thousand in March. Only the UK attracted more arrivals. The number would be considered weak in a normal year, but remember: we are still in a recovery mode.

From tats: Current Key Figures from the Travel Industry in Comparison, April 2022 vs 2021 & 2019

While the initial stages of the current recovery show that 2022 business is still running behind the business level of 2019 (which was a record for a majority if NTTO’s Top 20 Overseas Source Markets), the tats mirror are encouraging to industry analysts who realize that recovery won’t occur quickly.

The invoiced total turnover of the travel agencies recorded in the “ta.ts Reisebürospiegel” (travel agency mirror) was up 394.7 percent in April 2022—compared to the same month in 2021. Compared to April 2019, the invoiced total turnover was minus 31.6 percent.

Invoiced values ​​​​April 2022 vs. 2021 & 2019: The invoiced total turnover of the travel agencies recorded in the “ta.ts Reisebürospiegel” was up 394.7 percent in April 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. Compared to April 2019, the total invoiced turnover was minus 31.6 percent.

By Sub-Sector

—The invoiced tourism turnover showed an increase of 1,140.0 percent in April compared to 2021. Compared to April 2019, the invoiced tourism turnover was down 30.4 percent.

—Air traffic revenue this month is up 392.3% vs. 2021. As of April 2019, air traffic revenue is down 34.6 percent.

— “Other” sales were up 86.56 percent in April 2022 vs. 2021 and down 19.9 percent ​​vs. 2019.

The number of tickets was up 323.8 percent compared to April 2021 and down compared to April 2019 46.6 percent

—Sales from the tourism cruises sub-division in April were up 709.2 percent compared to 2021 and down 36.9 percent compared to April 2019.

By Year-to-Date 2022 vs. 2020 and 2019

—Cumulatively, the total invoiced travel agency turnover in the months from January to April was up 367.9 percent compared to 2021. For the period January to April vs. 2019, the cumulative invoiced travel agency turnover was minus 48.3 percent.

—Tourism recorded an increase of 810.5 percent compared to 2021 and minus 44.5 percent compared to 2019. Air traffic recorded an increase of 399.7 percent compared to 2021 and compared to 2019 a minus of 51.8 percent.

—“Other” sales showed an increase of 92.9 percent compared to 2021 and a decline of 38.4 percent compared to 2019. The number of tickets is an increase of 345.7 percent compared to 2021 and minus 60.1 percent compared to 2019. The cruise sub-sector shows a cumulative increase of 518.8 percent compared to 2021 or a minus of 53.8 percent compared to 2019.

Order Intake Tourism 2022 vs. 2021 & 2019

—In April 2022, the incoming orders in tourism amounted to 478.2 percent in a monthly comparison to 2021. The tourist order backlog by travel date up to April 2022 is up 275.0 percent compared to the previous year.

—In the cruise subdivision, incoming orders are up 89.7 percent month-on-month, and the order backlog by travel date up to April 2022 was up 105.4 percent.

—In April 2022, the incoming orders in tourism amounted to 10.1 percent in a monthly comparison to 2019.

—The tourism order book by travel date until October 2022 was down 38.3 percent compared to 2019.

—In the cruise sub-division, incoming orders in a monthly comparison to 2019 are minus 2.6 percent.

The tourism order book by travel date until October 2022 is minus 46.3 percent compared to 2019.