It looks like a recovering Euro, along with a rebound of business in Turkey and northern Africa markets fueled a healthy business year for Germany’s tour operators, according the new FVW Tour Operators Dossier.  And, reported FVW, the German travel trade publication, “Most leading tour operators generated solid revenue increases and are optimistic for 2018.”

The Dossier comes out each year prior to ITB, which convenes next week in Berlin. Along with an annual report from the German Travel Industry Association (DRV), which is published for ITB, it makes the place and the occasion the premier venue for measure the pulse and condition of the German tour and travel industry.

While there are no breakout data on turnover related to outbound travel to the United States, the Dossier—along with upbeat data from the latest monthly release of overseas arrivals figures from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office—seems to suggest that 2018 will be a good year for all components of the tourism industry in Germany.

FVW said that the 7.4 increase rise in tour operator revenues in Germany last year was a much better performance than in 2016 when business stagnated due to a slump in demand for Turkey and North Africa. Last year, tour operators achieved significantly higher average prices, given that the overall number of customers increased by only 2.8 percent in 2017. This was due to a mix of factors, including healthy demand for Spain, Greece and other more expensive Mediterranean destinations as well as strong growth for cruises and other higher-priced holidays.

This year’s dossier covers 56 tour operators, which increased their combined revenues in Germany by 7.4 percent to €22.8 billion ($28.1 billion) last year. The dossier also includes the Swiss and Austrian markets for the first time, covering both German tour operator revenues in those two markets and local market leaders. The overall tour operator revenues in the three countries increased by 6.9 percent to €25.5 billion ($31.45 billion) last year.

As reported by FVW, the German organized holiday market is “enjoying a boom,” with strong double-digit growth rates in January.

Perhaps it has something to do with a stronger Euro—it increased by 18 percent in value against the U.S. dollar from mid-January 2017 to mid-January 2018—as the news from Germany regarding the travel trade is decidedly upbeat, even if there are no specific references to the Visit USA market. (The U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office has forecast a modest two percent increase in passenger traffic for 2018; this would follow an anticipated 1 percent increase for 2017, once official data for the year are available.)

Summer 2018 has generated cumulative revenue growth of 18 percent so far, including a 17 percent year-on-year increase in January, which is the top booking month of the year.

This was one of the highlights for the month, according the Travel Insights survey by the Nuremberg-based marketing research group GfK (Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung, or Society for Consumer Research) in its restructured monthly sales analysis, which has been broadened to include bookings from 2,000 representative travel agencies (rather than the previous 1,500) as well as sales through OTAs and tour operator websites. It does not cover individual direct bookings by consumers. Other highlights from the report include the following:

—Nearly half (47 percent) of last year’s total summer revenues have already been reached as of the end of January.

—The top growth months are May (up 47 percent), mostly due to spring holidays in several German regions, and September (up by 21 percent); all months in the summer season, however, are higher than last year at present.

—So far, 84 percent of summer 2018 revenues, overwhelmingly generated by package holiday bookings, have been generated by retail travel outlets.

—Winter bookings are also looking good with an 11 percent increase so far, including a 14 boost in January.

—With 97 percent of last year’s winter season volumes already sold and still three months to go, winter 2017/18 is also likely to close with good growth, said GfK.

The GfK findings come in the wake of similarly positive figures in the monthly TATS sale survey of 2,500 travel agencies and OTAs that use its Ibiza reservations system. This showed a 6.9 increase in booked revenues for package holidays and cruises last month, and an overall 8.3 percent increase, including flights and other travel products.

Advance bookings were 13 percent ahead of January 2017, including a 19 percent increase for cruise holiday bookings. Overall, leisure travel bookings for departures up to October 2018 were nearly 10 percent higher than at the same time last year.

However, there are those Itching for “Something New” this Year:  Many Germans consider themselves better off financially this year, which will help drive demand for holidays in general. This is the thrust of the message delivered at the just concluded CMT travel fair, which took place Jan. 13-21 in Stuttgart, by Dr. Martin Lohmann, managing director of the Kiel-based Institute for Tourism and Recreational Research in Northern Europe (NIT) and scientific advisor of the FUR (Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen), which is responsible for the comprehensive annual Reiseanalyse market survey, a sort of statistical bible on the German tour and travel industry (The survey is the result of interviews with of more than 7,500 Germans conducted in November.) As reported by the German travel trade publication, FVW, Lohmann made a number of points derived from preliminary Reiseanalyse results, which included the following:

—Nearly one German in four (24 percent) plans to travel more in 2018 vs. 2017, which is a slight increase on the 23 percent figure at the same time last year. Moreover, 30 percent (compared to 28 percent last year) want to spend more on travel and holidays in 2018. In contrast, only 13 percent want to travel less (the same figure as last year) and a similar 13 percent plan to spend less (down from 14 percent last year).

—“These results,” said Lohmann, “demonstrate a positive mood for holidays which signals good starting conditions for 2018,”

—The Reiseanalyse survey report showed that there was a “stable high level of demand” in Germany, with 69 million holidays (of 5 days or more) in 2017.

—The number of short private trips increased by 2.5 percent to 91 million last year.

—Overall spending on holidays went up by 2 percent to €69 billion ($84.5 billion) 2017, according initial Reiseanalyse results.

—The industry should not expect any major changes in destinations or types of holidays this year; with a 30 percent share, Germany remains the top holiday destination for Germans, ahead of Spain, Italy, Turkey, Austria, Greece and Croatia.

In the Mood for Something New (Long-Haul Trips, FITs?): Said Lohmann, “The constant overall picture should not hide the trend towards individual flexibility and the desire for something new.” As many as 42 percent of Germans plan to visit a completely new destination this year, with 17 percent considering a long-haul trip (compared to 15 percent last year). There is also more interest in city trips, wellness breaks and cruises.

Lohmann also noted that:

—A “stable” 22 percent of holidays will be booked as packages.

—A further 11 percent will be booked as a combination of individual elements.

—More travel components such as hotels or flights will be booked individually online.

—The number of survey respondents planning to book through a travel agent declined to 16 percent from 18 percent in the previous year.

The thrust of the Reiseanalyse report seems to comport with that of a report released earlier this month by the Nuremberg-based research organization GfK (Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung, or Society for Consumer Research), which cited an improvement in business turnover of German tour operators in 2017 vs. 2016.

Always Look on the Bright Side: Last week, the authoritative German travel trade publication FVW wrote: “The German tourism industry is looking ahead optimistically to 2018 after overcoming setbacks such as airline and tour operator insolvencies to generate solid low growth last year.” In digesting a report of the Nuremberg-based research organization GfK (Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung, or Society for Consumer Research), FVW made the following points:

—The German tour operator market increased turnover by about 4 percent in summer 2017 and by at least 2 percent for the full 2016/17 business year.

—However, several leading tour operators have reported higher growth rates.

—In addition, cruise holiday sales continued to grow strongly last year, probably again at a double-digit rate, according to experts.

Also, the German travel industry association DRV predicts further market growth and similar demand trends again in 2018 as last year as the markets of Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey are expected to recover following a year in which there was no major terrorist activity that would cause anxiety among German travelers.

As well, Thomas Cook Germany reported last month that summer 2018 bookings are strong for Spain, especially Majorca, as well as Greece and Bulgaria, while Turkey is recovering with a double-digit rise in customer numbers, and Egypt and Tunisia are continuing their comeback.

“These figures and predictions have left German travel agents in an optimistic mood, according to the latest monthly FVW ‘sales climate index,’” adding, “This soared to a new all-time high of 120.7 points in December. More than half (57 percent) of the survey participants described their current sales figures as good.”

Air Traffic Expected to Increase: An update from Flughafenverband ADV (German Airports Association) showed that German airports are optimistic about the new year. In its annual forecast for 2018, ADV indicated that:

• There will be growth in passenger demand of 4.2 percent.
• In flight movements, the pace of growth will stabilize at one percent.
• In a number that has particular meaning for the U.S. tour and travel industry, ADV said that  intercontinental routes also remained “an important engine of growth” with a forecast increase of 4.6 percent to 43 million passengers.
• Overall, ADV is satisfied with the past year, and it expects a significant increase of 224 million passengers in the previous year to a record level of around 235 million.

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Note: For the record, in its 2018 Market Report, INBOUND has forecast a year-on-year decline of 1 to 3 percent in arrivals from Germany for 2018. To access the report, visit:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UJ5PU0Vj2w27aa7QuXyk-5HzFm9Gdlbf/view