He’s done it again. Timo Kohlenberg, the boyish and adventurous president and CEO of America Unlimited, the Hannover, Germany-based USA specialist, has launched a promotional campaign using the highly negative impact on travel consumers of the Trump brand and, playing on the meaning of the word, “trump,” is turning it into a catchy hook that is registering with Germans.

When last we checked, Kohlenberg, who studied marketing in both London and New York before joining the family-owned firm that he now runs, was cited in the travel trade media along with other German operators lamenting the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and immigration-related proposals on travel to the United States.

A practitioner of what is described as “stunt marketing,” which is seen in everything from the splashy America Unlimited van he drives around Hannover and showcases at trade shows to a six-story banner on the side of a Hannover high-rise building, as well as his own attire, Kohlenberg has developed a new consumer-and-trade campaign hinged to the meaning of the word “trump” that has generated much notice.

The essence of the promotion, he told the Inbound Report when we asked him about it, is this: “Trump means triumph in German as well. You are supposed to focus on the real trumps in America, such as the Golden Gate Bridge, instead of talking about politics.”

Continuing, he explained, “We wanted something edgy, something where people would stop and take a second look, especially with these out-of-home components, we need to get the attention in the first place. This campaign plays with the current political issue and therefore gets people’s attention a lot.”

A staple of an America Limited campaigns seems to be the billboard, which depends upon a four-to-eight second window of a motorist’s attention. Kohlenberg has the campaign slogan and one of its images, such as the Statue of Liberty, on billboards in Hamburg, Berlin, Hannover and Frankfurt.

More important than its impact on motorists is how the campaign has been received in the new media. And it has received a substantial amount of attention in both the consumer and trade media, with the coverage usually featuring an iconic image—or “trump,” he might say—in the coverage.

 

 

The spirit of bonhomie that generally prevails at tour and travel industry trade shows, as it did the week before last at ITB in Berlin, could not mask the uncomfortable reality created by some of the data released at the same time as the world’s largest travel got under way at the Messe Berlin exhibit halls.

The latest monthly figures released by the Nuremberg-based research firm GfK showed that, for both tour operators and travel agents in Germany, summer holiday bookings in February did not show any growth for the second consecutive month. And January and February are normally the two strongest booking months for summer holidays.

The GfK release came just after the issuance of the German Travel Trade Barometer—its results are based on a survey of tour operators responsible for 80 percent of wholesale USA holiday sales in Germany—which suggested an outlook for travel sales for U.S. product that is, at best, tepid, and predicting a year of no growth.

GfK’s regular monthly report is based on an analysis of sales covering 1,500 German travel agencies. Some of the specifics from its latest report include the following:

• Following disappointing figures for January, bookings remained beneath expectations in February, as travel agents increased sales by just one percent for the month.
• Even this increase was purely generated by late winter bookings that generated a sales increase of 7 percent last month. However, overall sales to date for winter 2016/17 are now 3 percent behind last year.
• The cumulated growth for summer 2017 has now dropped back to 4.5 percent as of the end of February from 5.6 percent as of the end of January, driven by strong early bookings in November and December.
• However, since summer bookings were down by 8 percent at the same time last year, overall summer sales are still running about 3 percent below the high levels of 2015.
• In terms of bookings for individual months in the summer 2017 season, June has a robust 23 percent increase in bookings—due primarily to later spring holidays this year, with May down 9 percent as a result of the same effect.
• For July and September bookings are up by 9 percent, while sales for August, the peak travel month, are flat at last year’s level.

German Travelers “do not feel as welcome as before.”

The recently released German Travel Trade Barometer covering the end of 2017 and first quarter of 2017  revealed that top German tour operators reported no growth in 2016 compared to 2015 on average (for year-end 2016 bookings). While not necessarily positive news, a no-change-year-over-year is significantly better than double-digit declines being reported for total visits from Germany to some markets, notes the Barometer, which is conducted by Travel Market Insights Inc., pointing out that the trade only represent their bookings and their input does not account for all travel. But it does indicate that U.S. companies and travel destinations that work with the German trade might register a stronger return. (Editor’s note: Because of the format of the Barometer, there were not any questions specifically referring to U.S. President Donald Trump asked of operators.)

According to the survey, German operators also projected bookings for the 2016-2017 winter period (November 2016 – March 2017): they increased slightly (up 1-3 percent) for the winter period compared to last year. The difference between what the operators are reporting and a decline of more than 10 percent (for the first eight months of 2016) reported by the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) may be reflected in potential demand to book travel via an agent or operator given an increase in uncertainty in the exchange rate and political (policy) uncertainty. It also reflects the growth in the trade developing FIT options for consumers. In either case, said the Barometer, demand for travel to the USA has retreated from the record highs in 2015.

In the Barometer, German operators were asked why bookings/demand is projected to change. The top reason bookings changed in 2016 was “a change in consumer demand,” followed closely by the currency exchange rate, and the cost of travel in the U.S.

When asked to elaborate several themes appeared on why demand shifted, operators pointed to:

1. A strong U.S. Dollar and cost of lodging
2. Politics in the U.S.
3. Uncertainty (primarily over entrance-and-exit policy)

The German trade indicated that these concerns are resulting in some consumers “putting off” travel to the United States. The desire is still there, as some indicated, but consumers are willing to skip the USA for other destinations that are more stable at this time. Canada was clearly benefiting with 80 percent of the trade reporting Canada as the top competitive destination for the U.S. in 2016. For the winter period (November 2016 – March 2017) the Caribbean was the top competitive destination for the United States.

Respondents ranked entry-and-exit requirements as the strongest deterrent for travel to the U.S. in the next six months. Accommodation rates and the exchange rate to the U.S. dollar rounded out the top three deterrents

The German respondents were also asked “in your own words”: “What are the most important motivators to expand travel to the U.S.?” and “What are the most concerning deterrents for travel to the U.S. in 2017?”

Most of the trade indicated that tightened immigration regulations would have a negative impact. The concern on entry and exit requirements included “continuity in entry regulations,” “focusing on the need for a clear and consistent policy.” Others expressed similar concerns for continuity: “uncertainty about the president’s policies,” “stable entry regulations,” “clear objectives by the new government would be beneficial to our customers,” “stable communications,” “In general, the entry procedure is not conductive to tourism.” Others suggested that the welcome mat has been removed and that needs to be addressed: “statements that European tourists are welcome in the country would be beneficial,” “Travelers do not feel as welcome as before.”

German operators also provided insight on changes in demand for travel during the winter period (November 2016 – March 2016). Niche travel, car rentals, touring the countryside, world heritage/national park sites, and multi-destination travel ranked the strongest. In contrast, shopping trips, theme parks, and full package travel ranked the lowest overall – but were still rated as only being slightly lower in demand.

A Note on Methodology: The German Travel Trade Barometer program is conducted by Travel Market Insights Inc. The survey is administered in German on line. The program is supported by the U.S. Department of Commerce and receives input from Germany’s Visit USA Committee. The German Travel Trade Barometer is a qualitative survey of top German tour operators that sell and promote travel to the United States. This survey session was conducted from January 30 to February 22, 2017. Out of 50 potential qualified respondents 26 responded. The 26 respondent companies are estimated to represent 80 percent of the German bookings to the Unites States. For access to the full U.S. report (in English or German), U.S. destination specific results, or more details on the program please contact Scott C. Johnson, president and CEO of Travel Market Insights Inc. /Scott@travelmi.com /Phone: 1+518-668-2559 (USA).

Even though January is generally the top month for travel sales in Germany, travel agents in the country realized a one percent drop in winter revenues last month, reports the German travel trade publication FVW, and summer 2017 bookings were stuck at last year’s level—a level that was a poor one for the industry, with its year-on-year slump.

The numbers, which came from the regular monthly analysis by the Nuremberg-based marketing research firm GfK, followed strong months in November and December during which, FVW said, “Germans snapped up bargain offers and took advantage of early booking discounts.” The GfK’s analysis is based on bookings in 1,500 representative travel agencies.

As a result, according to GfK, summer 2017 sales are now running 6 percent ahead of last year on a cumulative basis, but which is down from a 10 percent growth rate in December.

At the same time, the overall 2016/17 tourism year is still showing a small sales increase of 1 percent on a cumulative basis, with the 6 percent summer growth outweighing a 4 percent decline in winter season sales, according to the GfK figures.

Commenting on the numbers, Dörte Nordbeck, head of Travel & Logistics Germany at GfK, observed: “We assume that some holidaymakers have learned from last year’s (capacity) bottlenecks and the resulting price increases, and have booked their summer holidays even earlier than usual this year.”