Released within the same 24-hour window of time as was the announcement that this year’s ITB—it was supposed to start on March 4th—had been cancelled, the latest survey results from Nuremberg-based  Travel Data + Analytics on the condition of the German had some upbeat numbers for overseas travel in an otherwise mixed report, which complemented some of the findings of an earlier industry report (the 36th annual “Tourismus Analyse” from the Hamburg-based Institute for Future Studies, which found that German travelers’ interest is in overseas trips increasing this year, with 18 percent of those surveyed planning a trip outside Europe in 2020 compared to 17.4 percent. last year).

Some key findings of the Travel Data + Analytics report include the following:

—Overall, the current winter season 2019/20 and the advance bookings for the coming summer season 2020 are cumulatively minus three percent in sales.

—However, spending behavior speaks for stable vacation demand: Germans are spending an average of three percent more on their summer vacation by air than in the previous year. 

—Egypt is particularly fast growing among summer travel destinations. Holidays in Germany are also increasingly in demand.

—Advance bookings for the upcoming 2020 summer season, which begins in May, are also still three percent behind. However, the drop in sales slowly decreases from booking month to booking month. “It was to be expected that the loss of what was once the second largest tour operator in the German market (Thomas Cook, which shut down last September) would be reflected in the current sales balance of travel sales,” explained Dörte Nordbeck, director of business development at Travel Data + Analytics.

—The study showed that the United States remains the top long-haul destination this year for Germans on holiday.

—On average, the German spends 1,012 euros ($1,116) for his/her vacation trip with flight. This corresponds to an increase of three percent compared to the previous year. 

—The high willingness to spend influences the overall picture: in bookings, not sales, the summer season 2020 is still nine percent below the previous year.

The report closes with this additional, last-minute note:

“The effects that the outbreak of the corona virus will have on the booking behavior of German vacations to China, Asia or even cruises and European travel destinations as a whole can only be guessed at the moment. In the second half of January, however, there was already a visible decline in new bookings and an increase in travel cancellations for vacation trips to China. For Asia as a whole, this trend is visible in a weakened form.”

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Methodolgy: The TDA report is based on the booking data of around 2,000 travel agencies, which represent the stationary sales market in Germany. In addition, the booking data of classic travel portals and tour operators are recorded in the online area. Extrapolated to the overall market, the evaluations by TDA Travel Intelligence allow reliable conclusions to be drawn about the booking and travel behavior of German vacationers. Current trends and developments in the tourist market can be traced promptly. Further information, contact Dörte Nordbeck: doerte.nordbeck@traveldataanalytics.de.

Amidst a European environment that has given writers and editors everywhere the opportunity to use a new word combination—“Flight Shaming”—that calls upon travelers to forego air travel in favor a more environmentally sensitive mode of travel, Germans don’t seem to be interested.

In fact—at about the same time it was announced that there was 4 percent drop in the number of commercial passengers flying in Sweden—it is where the term “flygskam,” or “flight shame,” was popularized—a widely cited survey of holiday travel plans among Germans showed that the number of those who are planning long-haul travel (think USA as a destination) had actually increased this year vs. last.

That’s right. The 36th annual “Tourismus Analyse” (Tourism Analysis) from the Hamburg-based Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen (Institute for Future Studies) found that German travelers don’t much care about Flight Shaming.

As reported in the German travel trade publication FVW, interest in long-haul holidays is actually increasing with 18 percent of those surveyed planning a trip outside Europe in 2020 compared to 17.4 percent. last year. Among all subsectors of the German travel market “This segment is the clear winner,” observed Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, scientific director of the Institute, who said that the current CO2 debate “has virtually no consequences for Germans in terms of travel. People switch their consciences off when they are on holiday, they prefer to make restrictions in their everyday life.”

The principal finding of the survey, which had 3,000 respondents, he indicated, was that the travel plans of Germans in 2020 are essentially similar to what they were at the same time last year, adding “Nearly two thirds are sitting on packed suitcases … The indicators are looking good, and 2020 could be a record year.”

Indeed, if one were to re-visit forecasts of the heavily researched German travel market from last year, one would find that the measurable data sets are more or less the same as they were for this year. For instance:

—One-third (33 percent) of survey respondents said they are planning one trip of at least five days this year;

—Another 32 percent intend to go on several trips.

—Among the remainder, 21 percent are not sure if they are going on holiday this year

—Fourteen percent do not intend to do so.

—In 2019, 61 percent of Germans went on at least one trip of five days or more, compared to 62 percent the previous year, the survey showed. Nearly one in five (19 percent) took three trips or more.

—Nearly half (48 percent) of German travelers visited a European destination (compared to 54 percent) in 2018, while another third (34 percent) took a holiday. within Germany.

Shutdown of Thomas Cook Did not Hurt: Tour operators increased their revenues by 2 percent in the tourism year ending October 31, 2019, the DRV announced at its annual conference in Hamburg this week. This included a slight 1 percent rise in revenues for summer 2019. The figures are based on monthly surveys of travel agency and online sales of tour operator holidays, conducted by the Nuremberg-based market researcher firm Travel Data & Analytics (TDA) ©Travel Intelligence. They were announced at the recent conference of the German Travel Association (DRV).

In addition to the wealth of mostly good news about the retail sector, it was announced that a beneficiary of the strong performance among long-haul destinations was the USA (+7 percent) and along with Mexico (+10 percent).

From the TDA Report: At the end of October 2019, the 2019 summer season and the 2018/19 tourism year were completed.

—On the “home straight,” travel sales in Germany managed to turn both balance sheets into positive figures: The 2019 summer season ends with a small growth in sales of one percent, the 2018/19 tourism year ended with a plus of two percent. In particular, the new 2019/20 winter season can improve significantly on the previous month.

—Only the early bookers for the coming summer 2020 are lagging behind the previous year (-10 percent), so that the booking month of October closed with an overall increase in turnover of only three per cent.

—With a sales increase of one percent, the 2019 summer season will not only be able to maintain the high growth level of the previous year’s season, but will even slightly exceed it: The summer of 2018 ended with a plus of ten percent. In stationary travel sales, this year’s summer balance is somewhat weaker (-1 percent) than in online travel sales (+7 percent). In the final result for the tourism year, stationary sales reached the break even, while online sales grew by nine per cent in terms of turnover.

—Thanks to last minute growth of 33 percent, the travel month of October 2019 can improve to 8.5 percent more turnover (previous month: 6.7 percent). The allegedly high last-minute traffic only accounts for a small share of the overall seasonal result. After all, it has turned out to be sufficiently high to be able to still increase summer 2019 to rounded plus one percent.

—In the last booking month of the season, 10.5 percent of booking revenues were generated in the summer season, which has now ended. This represents an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year.

—The 10 percent increase in sales for the new winter season is much more significant: cumulated to the current booking level, it now shows only a slight minus of one percent. A month ago, it was still minus four percent.

Summer Ends in Plus; Winter Improves Significantly

—The increasing demand for winter holidays has primarily benefited travel agencies: With them the increase amounts to 12 percent in comparison to only plus three percent in on-line selling.

—A not inconsiderable part of these bookings is probably attributable to those affected by the Thomas Cook bankruptcy, who have booked replacements for their cancelled trips. What might distort the overall picture in the current seasonal balance sheets—summer and winter—are the Thomas Cook cancellations, which are missing for reasons of insolvency law.

—Most of the winter turnover achieved so far (53 percent) is attributable to the early travel months of November (+8.0 percent) and December (+0.2 percent). The sales balance for the travel month of February (+1.9 per cent) has now also turned positive in relation to the current booking status. Although all others were able to improve compared to the previous month, they are still in the minus, which for the later travel months of March and April 2020 is even double-digit. The demand for Easter holidays, which is already visibly increasing in most cases at this time, is lacking.

—The early bookers for the next summer holiday in 2020 are also cautious at the current booking status: the early summer bookings are ten percent below the previous year in terms of turnover, while in the booking month of October 2019 they already account for 39.5 percent of the total turnover in proportion to turnover – however, this is 5.7 percentage points less than in the same month last year. Possible explanations for the reluctance to book beyond the winter months could be general uncertainty among travelers due to the insolvency of one of Germany’s largest tour operators as well as the summer catalogues of other major tour operators which will be published later.