It took about a month longer than it usually does for the Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) to process the results of its quarterly of Survey of Travel Market Trends for the travel trade in the country. But the wait might have been worth it for U.S. travel suppliers as the country’s travel agents and tour operators indicated that they are confident that travel to the United States will be better in the current quarter (July through September) and the final quarter (October through December) of 2018 compared to a year ago. In fact, the increase in survey’s Diffusion Index, or DI (See Note on Methodology below) was more than 25 percent for the final quarter.

This marks a significant increase in the JATA survey regarding outbound travel to the U.S., a measure which has been flat to negative for some three years.

In its own language, the JATA survey analysis said, “The overseas travel DI has improved steadily since the level of two years ago. The DI which was at standstill for two consecutive quarters has grown as Europe gained 12 points, South Korea 11 points, the USA & Canada 8 points, and China 6 points.” In reviewing specific market segments, JATA anticipates a boost in honeymoon travel, female officer worker travel and education travel through the end of 2018.

Before You Review the Tables: It is important to understand the methodology behind the compilation and preparation of the Survey of Travel Market Trends. JATA asks all member companies to register as survey monitors. It conducts the quarterly Survey of Travel Market Trends that involves more than 600 registered companies and publishes the results. The Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the “do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into a Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.” The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100.

NOTE: The Internet survey that produced the above results was conducted from May 2, 2018 to June 8, 2018. The number of registered companies that received the survey was 632. The number of responding companies was 299, for a response rate of 47.3 percent.

 

It’s been a full half-year since the Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) issued its last quarterly Survey of Travel Market Trends. For the travel trade in Japan, it seems to have been worth the wait, as the Survey now has projections for both outbound and inbound travel. Previously, it concerned itself with outbound travel only. As for those in the inbound tourism industry in the United States, the data are about the only reliable indicator of how the third largest overseas source market (the UK and China are Number 1 and 2) to the USA is currently performing, and is expected to perform through the end of the summer travel season.

Key Numbers: The report, which is written in a style that would make the results of a dental exam sound dramatic, indicates that, according to JATA’s survey of tour operators, travel agents and other key travel trade professionals in Japan, current numbers (for the first quarter, when the survey was conducted) suggest that overseas visits to the USA are at about the same level they’ve been for a year. There is the hint, however, from the trade believes that traffic to the U.S. should pick up in the third quarter of this year.

And when one looks at specific segments within the entire Japanese overseas outbound market, there are indications that family travel, student travel and “female office workers” (once called the “office ladies” market) should perform well through the second and third quarters of this year. Also of interest is the improvement in confidence in the individual tours segment, which is expected to increase by a third between Q3 2017 and Q3 2018.

Before You Review the Tables: It is important to understand the methodology behind the compilation and preparation of the Survey of Travel Market Trends. JATA asks all member companies to register as survey monitors. It conducts the quarterly Survey of Travel Market Trends that involves 588 registered companies and publishes the results. The Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the “do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into a Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.”The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100.

 

Japan’s economists, already worried about replacing a work force that is growing old and gray, along with Japan’s tour and travel industry, which has been concerned about an expected decline in the size of the prime travel age group of 25-54-years old, have just been presented with some new data from Japanese government officials that very well justify the worry and concern. Consider the following:

—According to statistics released by the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry, the number of babies born this year is likely to slip below 1 million for the second consecutive year. The country is expected to have produced 941,000 babies in 2017, the lowest since surveys began in 1899 and about 36,000 less than the previous year, government data showed.

—Births in Japan peaked in 1949 at about 2.70 million. But that has since changed and recent population trends continued as estimated deaths for 2017 stood at 1.34 million, the highest in the postwar era and up some 36,000 from the previous year.

—The natural decline in the population was estimated at 403,000, the highest ever and up by about 72,000 from the previous year.

—The number of marriages in 2017 dropped to 607,000, the lowest in the postwar era and down 14,000 from the previous year.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to resolve the dual challenges of the country’s aging population and declining birth rate by increasing support for child care and education, while his government has set a goal of raising the total fertility rate to 1.8 by around 2025.

Source: “Aging of Japan”—Wikipedia

Meanwhile, although the Japanese government (as well as its tour and travel industry) want more babies who would grow up, fill the workforce and spend money on travel,  the women who might be able to have them seem to care less and less about finding men to help them create babies. A recent article in the Japan Times, said that 60 percent of eligible women say they cannot feel relaxed enough to get interested in renai (love relationships).

“As sad as it sounds,” intoned the Times, “the nation’s women appear to have joined the ranks of men as overworked employees, too drained from the daily grind. Specifically, women appear to be fatigued by the alternative — shokubano ningenkankei (workplace relationships) — and avoid going out on random dates, as they have now become synonymous with stress.”

In fact, one in four has confessed to having fallen asleep during a date. So, asked the Times, “Have Japanese women given up on love?” The answer: “A cautious ‘yes, sort of’ seems to be the answer. While that may indeed be the case, they have not given up on marriage. Although few women have the time or inclination for the rollercoaster ride of love relationships, a whopping 80 percent told cocoloni.jp they wanted to find a husband and settle down. They’re seeking antei (stability), preceded by a sumptuous wedding that would wow multitudes on Instagram.”

Never the Twain Shall Meet? The numbers are reversed when it comes to men. Sixty percent of those surveyed say they are not interested in marriage but close to 80 percent claim to want girlfriends. These men view marriage warily, aware that tying the knot will involve complications and baggage they aren’t ready to take on. Marriage would also cramp their style and eat into precious disposable income.

The Times article explores other reasons for the reluctance to get married, which include long working hours, the absence, for some, of guaranteed maternity and paternity leave and workplace environments. Addressing these issues, said the Times, “will go a long way in getting women to think about love.” But, adds the Times, “until then …  the combination of pajamas and a couch remains irresistible.”