The just-posted numbers from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) tell us that close of August marked the worst-ever half-year period for travel from overseas countries to the United States.

As the world’s travel and tourism industry fights to remain a viable force midst the drear and dross of the coronavirus-drive global pandemic that has virtually shut the industry down since the beginning of March 2020, we take solace in surveys that tell us certain sectors of travel and tourism are finding viability with creative selling or that a pent-up demand simply has to translate into travel. But when it comes to the key figures that really matter, the outlook for the near-term is not that encouraging.

Take a look at the new look on the National Travel and Tourism Office arrivals website:

https://www.trade.gov/visitor-arrivals-program-i-94-data

Let’s consider the capacity and capability of several of the airlines that make overseas travel to and from the U.S. possible. A column last week by OAG’s John Grant that focused on the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. He wrote:

“For two of the majors, current bookings for November are running at just 25 percent of those reported at this time last year whilst for Delta Air Lines forward bookings are only at 12 percent of last year’s level for November. Clearly booking data changes every day but two factors also play on this data; quite how many of these bookings are vouchers being redeemed and precisely how much was paid for each booking. A triple whammy of fewer bookings, vouchers being used, and low yields just compound the misery for the carriers.”

For now, the overwhelming consensus of the news that reports on trave trade activity in the key markets and regions that are key to a healthy industry is that we should not expect a magic spike somewhere in Q4, and that we should focus—if we aren’t already doing so—on 2021 and 2022.

And remember: the numbers below will only get better.

A New View: Given how quickly the landscape is changing in the current crisis, an Expedia Group team ran a sentiment study in July with research experts dscout.* Explained Monya Mandich, global vice president, marketing, for Expedia: “We asked a panel of travelers in the U.S. as well as in Australia, Canada, Europe, and the U.K. to tell us about their upcoming travel plans and explain what is driving their decisions when it comes to booking trips at this time. Respondents to the online survey were qualified as already having had a leisure trip planned and/or booked for June-December 2020. As well as detailed study responses to a number of questions, we were also able to see and hear from travelers through online video testimonials, helping uncover deeper insight into their attitudes and motivations.

* A Chicago-based online research company

Here is a snapshot of what the research team saw from the study, including a couple of the themes that Expedia says “bubbled up.”

Health and hygiene information are key: As travel shoppers evaluate their destination, accommodation, and transportation options, around nine in ten of them want to see information on health and cleanliness before booking. Above all else, travelers want to be reassured that it is safe for them to travel and they want to see relevant information and messaging from travel brands. We recommend that destinations, lodging and transportation advertising partners use marketing messages and content to explicitly outline the health measures they are taking.

Domestic car trips are trending: With only 26 percent of travelers comfortable traveling by plane one month from now, destinations should target drive markets to attract potential visitors. Proactively sharing information on open businesses, off-the-beaten-path activities, socially distanced experiences, and more will help would-be visitors get inspired and plan their trip. The likelihood of visitors renting a car for a leisure trip is three times higher than pre-COVID levels, representing a huge opportunity for rental companies.

Vacation rentals prove popular: Travelers are most comfortable staying in a vacation rental—chain hotels, and resorts come in a close second during the COVID-19 crisis. Lodging providers can attract potential guests by leading with their flexible cancellation policies and detailed health and safety information. Hotels and resorts can also share information on nearby activities that are open for business and incorporate special deals to help make the booking decision even easier.

Travelers turning to OTAs throughout the purchase journey: Along with insights into destination, accommodation, and travel preferences, the research shows travelers are turning to a variety of resources for trip inspiration, planning, and booking right now, including online travel agencies (OTAs). Nearly half of respondents turn to an OTA for inspiration, 73 percent for planning and 93 percent would use an OTA to book travel in this environment, illustrating an opportunity for travel brands to drive awareness and demand with a highly qualified audience.

In the course of its preparation of material for each and every upcoming issue, INBOUND listens to, watches, follows and/or reads its share of webinars, press releases, tourism data, e-papers and presentations and blog posts. But on Tuesday of last week, at just about 1p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, we stumbled over a quick-but-impactful colloquy by some highly regarded leaders in the travel and tourism industry in the U.S.—as they used the vehicle of LinkedIn. And not too long after the back-and-forth had begun, it was over. It was, basically, an afternoon and early evening of short, crisp dialogue. Not untypical among professionals in the travel and tourism industry who wrap up a conversation on their cell phones, laptop or tablet before their flight takes off. But on LinkedIn? Following is what we “overheard.”

Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics: “All our forecasts and scenarios are moored to the non-negotiable assumption that travel will fully recover. The pandemic will end. The drivers of travel – income growth, demographic shifts, the importance of meetings and the intrinsic value of a vacation – will still be intact on the other side. History supports the premise; recovery is inevitable.”

Rafat Ali, CEO & founder, Skift: “Words to that effect also said by music industry, newspaper industry and video industry in the last two decades as well.  ‘Non-negotiable assumption’ seems like a strange hill to stand on for an economist …”

“The demise of travel has been a popular pundit talking point before. After 9/11, ‘People won’t fly again in the same numbers.’ During the great financial crises, ‘Meetings will never return to their former glory.’ These predictions have not aged well. Confidence was restored and travelers came back.”

Adam Sacks: “The demise of travel has been a popular pundit talking point before. After 9/11, ‘People won’t fly again in the same numbers.’ During the great financial crises, ‘Meetings will never return to their former glory.’ These predictions have not aged well. Confidence was restored and travelers came back. Around the world, we have seen this same narrative play out dozens of times. SARS, Middle East unrest, terrorist attacks, tsunamis, earthquakes, and hurricanes have all buffeted our industry. During any crisis, it is natural to wonder if this is the one that represents a sea change or a ‘new normal.’ But history would advise us all to not forget that travel prevailed through every crisis to date, moving from survival to recovery to flourishing each time.”

Clayton Reid, CEO, MMGY Global: “Great point Adam. Not only is travel recovery inevitable, but that recovery will be faster and more pronounced than many are suggesting.”

Robert (Bob) Adams, senior managing director, travel/hospitality, gaming & entertainment-data/analytics/MarTech Solutions at Valid: “Totally agree!”

Brad Dean, CEO, Discover Puerto Rico: “Thanks for the reminder, Adam. COVID or no COVID, travel still changes lives & shapes communities.”

Phil Bruno, creator at Home E-Course: “Thanks for the hope, much needed!’

Christopher Heywood, executive vice president, global communications, New York City & Company:

“Pent-up demand will hopefully help accelerate the industry’s recovery!”

Chakradhar Munjuluri, product manager third party distribution, Choice Hotels International: “The other industries mentioned are still there—music, news, video—and so will travel. This is an opportunity for disruptions in the delivery similar to what was seen in other industries, but the core product will remain.”

Derek Schlager, director of business relations, Namu Travel Group: “We will always have negative people that enjoy being right for a while.”

Suzanne Wolko, change management consultant, Arden Road: “I wish I could be that positive -I don’t think it will fully recover to 2019 levels and not likely in time to save some local businesses tied to travel. There’s additional risk involved with business travel and meetings and increased ROI with video so that will change biz travel patterns, volume, and appetite. Leisure has a different road to travel in the short term but once borders are open without quarantine, that will be first to show promise IMO.”

Cole Turay, territory lead (sales, BD &GTM), Particle: “Completely agree with Suzanne Wolko, Adam Sacks and Christopher Heywood! Hopefully a COVID-9 vaccine is GA in the latter half of 2021 or earlier, then pent-up demand and income growth will expedite leisure travel recovery, but business travel recovery will take a few years … based on historical travel ‘pauses,’ wonder when Adam predicts business travel will return to 2019 levels?”

Nandini Nadkarni, research consultant: “Yes, recovery is inevitable. The travel landscape will change and look different. Who will survive? What will it take for the recovery to happen? These and more will be the negotiable assumptions as we think about recovery.”

James Hepple, managing director, Tourism Analytics: “Adam, I don’t know. It will recover only if the underlying discretionary spend recovers. If the major source markets slide into a deep recession or even depression recovery is not so certain.”

Benjamin Chambers, CEO & Founder, Elevation Wealth: “Well said Adam! The world will move on, innovation will continue. Here’s hoping our boys will get their Senior varsity season in!”

Mark Mekki, co-founder, Bond—Building Digital Communities: “Let’s be optimistic that it will … but a ‘non-negotiable assumption’ sounds like a euphemism for ‘I really hope because the alternative is unthinkable.’”

Ibrahim Osta, director, Middle East & North Arica, Chemonics International: “That’s certain. Hope it comes sooner than later. We all have a role to play in this recovery.”

John Barranco, director of business development, Morgan & Co. Media Agency: “So ready to travel!”

James Rice, consultant for hotels, convention centers, hospitality & the special events industry: “Agree, and as with Monopoly, we just have to have patience in how this all comes back together. We have to get F.I.T. right first.”

Robert West, manager, World West Consulting LLC: “Adam – I thought I had lost track of you since the WEFA days and the great project in The Bahamas. Want to catch up?”

Dave Looby, president & CEO, Minneapolis Northwest Tourism: “The question is, how long can many tourism related businesses, destinations and tourism professionals wait out the storm and financially survive to reach the other side?”

Candace Carr Strauss, CEO, Big Sky Chamber of Commerce: “AMEN, Adam Sacks. Now look into your crystal ball and tell me when you think that will be—lol.”

“I’ve been down so long that bottom looks like up to me,” one variation of an old saying tells us, and it’s an apt—if not statistically precise—assessment of the July 2020 monthly posting from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) of overseas arrivals to the United States.

There has been no appreciable arrivals number from just about any source market since the first quarter of the year—a reality that could change modestly with the next monthly report for August, during which there have been some easing of restrictions on long-haul travel worldwide. Also, airline lift capacity has increased just enough through favored travel “bubbles” and on some well-established routes that it has crept back up to about half of what it would have been this summer were it not for the damage to the travel and tourism industry caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has wreaked more damage to the global tourism economy than anything else in the post-World War II era of international air travel.

(Editor’s note: the comparisons reflected in the tables below are not a mistake. The wash of red print merely illustrates in graphic terms just how bad it has been. Perhaps the numbers for August will show that we have finally bottomed out and that a recovery is on its way.)

Notes  on the July 2020 Numbers: Helping INBOUND take a more thorough look at the overseas arrival data just released by NTTO was the widely-know industry analyst Ron Erdmann, now senior research associate at CIC Research, Inc. Erdmann career has included a tenure of more than 30 years at the U.S. Department of Commerce, including 20-plus years as deputy director for research at NTTO. Following are some of the points he noted:

—The dramatic shifts in overseas visitation to the USA in 2020 can be neatly summed up by looking at the top countries generating visitors to the USA in July at:  2020 Quick Release – Country of Residence (COR) compared to top 15 arrivals markets year-to-date. 

—Seeing the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, India, Ecuador and Haiti as the top arrival markets in July 2020 seems odd when year-to-date arrivals from the United Kingdom, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, China and France are more the traditional look you would have seen over the years.  But, 2020 is not a normal year.  July marks the fourth straight month of declines of 97 percent or more in arrivals to the country.

—How long will these declines stay this way?  Well keep coming back each month to the NTTO website and you will be able to see the top 15 arrivals in the 2020 Quick Release – Country of Residence (COR) tables. 

—For those who want more information, the NTTO also posts data on the top 50-plus arrival markets each month at:  Arrivals Data – Country of Residence (COR). 

—Since NTTO relies upon both Canada and Mexico for the arrival figures from these respective countries, there is always a delay in getting the total arrivals for these two markets.  But, as NTTO obtains them from their respective governments, they add them to the totals. 

—When looking at the January to July 2020 year-to-date arrival figures the 72 percent decline is staggering.  To put it in numbers:  overseas arrivals January to July 2019 totaled 22.9 million visitors.  In 2020, overseas arrivals for the first seven months totaled 6.3 million.  But the rates of decline are not all the same. 

—The steepest decline for the first seven months in the countries reports was from the Philippines down almost 80 percent when compared to 2019.  The country with the least decline to date was Costa Rica down nearly 64%.  In between there are 50 other rates of change.  As the year continues, these declines will most likely show a different set of top markets for 2020 when compared to 2019.  How much different?  Keep watching the NTTO monthly website site.  The August 2020 arrivals data should be released around September 25th.  Go to the following link on the NTTO website to keep current:  2011 – 2020 .