May 30 – June 1-5, 2020 in Las Vegas
Future IPW Sites
2021—Chicago, April 24-28
2022—Orlando, June 4-8
2023—San Antonio, May 20-24
2024—Los Angeles, May 4-8
Where IPW is this Year, Where it Will Be and Where It’s Been
Trend: The Ever-Shrinking Size of Groups
French Tour Operator Launches “Immersion” Tours Limited to 12 People: A steady story of the past decade has been the incredible shrinking size of the tour group. There seems to be no known specific date that the trend began, but it obviously coincided with the shrinking passenger capacity of the tour bus. Suddenly, it seemed, there were other vehicles besides the 50-passenger buses. There were 24-passenger buses or vans that offered smaller group tours options and flexibility in their tours, a shift that obviated the need for the larger capacity vehicles. The buses—now vans—continued to get smaller.
Soon, it was the Mercedes Benz Sprinters that one saw more and more in front of attractions, at restaurants or off-loading passengers at hotels. Today, one can rent, buy, purchase or hire 12-passengers Sprinters that can be customized to carry from 9 to 13 or more passengers.
At about the same time this was going on. A small French tour operator, VISITEURS, began making news in the travel trade with programs that one might call alternative tours. Last year, it launched its “Exploration” circuits for groups limited to 20 passengers. The product succeeded well enough that, this year, the company launched its “immersion” circuits.
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A note about VISITEURS: According its own website account, it was founded in 1986 by two friends (Didier Blanchard and Didier Rabaux) “fond of travel,” and it has been exploring the four corners of the world for 30 year: “At VISITEURS, you not only buy a trip, but you also buy a trip that makes sense, that will give you emotion, one that will allow you to have a real experience. It is no coincidence that we are constantly adding new ingredients to our ‘homemade’ recipes such as our ‘Splendeurs’ programs and our circuit extensions. In constant awareness of the expectations of travelers and our customers, we ‘unearth’ and concoct for you the most ‘Fine Travel.’ VISITEURS, today has close to 45 destinations around the world, mostly in Asia, Pacific & Middle East, Africa and Indian Ocean, North America & Latin America, and now Europe.”
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So, what is the “Immersion” spirit?
A news release announcing the product said that “”The Immersion spirit can
be summed up as ‘traveling differently,’ with new tours and stages, like the
Danakil desert in Ethiopia, or taking the time to discover a region for a
longer time, like Sapa in North Vietnam.”
On the accommodation side, said the release, “production gives pride of place
to eco-lodges in Vietnam and Thailand for example, character structures (a
dahabeya in Egypt or a yurt in Mongolia), or guest houses like in South
India—on a human scale and in an ever more personalized spirit.”
You can find out more about VISITEURS, which is based in Amien, France and is about a two-hour drive north of Paris, at https://www.visiteurs.fr/.
Wobbly 2020 Start for Overseas Markets
The latest monthly arrivals data posted by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) show that, for the month of January 2020, arrivals from overseas source markets to the United States were off by more than a percent, with more than half of the Top 10 markets down compared to 2019.
Recall that the numbers below were close to final for the month of January—while the people who had contracted the coronavirus were largely confined to China—and they underscore the notion that the outlook for inbound tourism from these markets was already soft … a point underscored recently by Carroll Rheem, vice president of research and analytics at Brand USA, during her remarks to Connect Travel’s Market Outlook session at the Gaylord Palms Resort in Kissimmee, Florida (see article elsewhere in this issue of INBOUND). She summed up her presentation, saying simply, “It’s going to be a tough year.”
Following are the early numbers from NTTO that show how the USA closed out 2019 and started 2020 in the Top 15 Overseas Markets. They do not include figures from the international visitor counts of the USA’s neighboring markets of Canada and Mexico.
Inbound Traffic to Increase Thru 2024
The Big Picture is an Optimistic One, Says New Study: About the only downside to the latest forecast of international visitors to the United States thru the next five years (including 2020) by the Travel Market Insights (TMI) group is that it came out in early course of the coronavirus crisis and all the damage that it has wreaked upon international travel through the world. With that in mind, one can still take some solace in its big picture numbers.
They include the following:
• Record visits are projected for every year starting in 2020.
• Most concerns that negatively impacted inbound visits since the last peak in 2015 won’t completely dissipate, but the level of concern should soften.
• By 2024 nearly 91 million international visitors will travel to the U.S.
• By 2024 there will be 14 countries that will report over 1 million visitors. The international visitor export opportunity will continue to be diverse and larger than ever.
Country-by-Country Increases: TMI’s outlook roughly tracks with that of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office data for the same period. TMI adds a twist here and there. Keeping in mind the corona virus caveat, here is how TMI sees the increases expected for the USA’s key source markets through 2024
“Headlines and growth are important but looking at the volume in 2024 provides a different ranking perspective,” says TMI’s Scott Johnson, noting that—as illustrated in the chart below—the UK will remain the top U.S. country for visits through 2024.
“Heads in Beds” tally shows a different impact: “’Heads in beds,’ as they say is a key indicator,” Johnson explains. Looking at arrivals from this perspective, he tells us that China is projected to book the most room-nights in 2024 primarily due to their length of stay in hotels. And the UK, a close second, has a slightly higher propensity to stay in hotels than the average overseas visitor (81.4 vs. 76.2 percent).
Overseas Countries Rank by Room Nights in 2024
Not All Visitors Come to See the Mainland: About one out of every ten international visitors to the United States each year do not visit the “Mainland” each year. (Mainland USA includes the states in North America, which excludes Hawaii, Guam, and other like parts of the United States.) However, this varies by country of origin and the popularity of Hawaii and Guam has an impact. The TMI forecast provides some interesting data on this point.
The chart above shows the total projected volume of visitors from each country in 2024 as well as the projected Mainland USA volume by the same countries.
—Two key visitor markets, Japan and South Korea, register a sizable shift in visits when reported as Mainland USA visits.
—Less than four in ten (38.4 percent) of the visitors from Japan visited Mainland USA in 2018, the lowest of any reported country.
—South Korea, at 51.7 percent, was the second lowest and Australia, at 79.0 percent, registered the third lowest percentage of all the countries to visit Mainland USA.
—The above points comprise an important consideration for these three significantly sized markets when ranking countries by visitor volume.
Tools for DMOs Researching International Markets: TMI’s Scott Johnson tells INBOUND that orecasting by destinations are more complex because of the diversity in geography, product, air lift/capacity by primary and feeder airports, product awareness and promotion, VFR (immigration), universities, and demand. Some key things to consider that are destination-specific indicators:
1. Purpose of Trip. Often visits are reported as business and leisure. This generally works for domestic visitors, however, international markets (depending on the destination) call for more depth in the breakdown by purpose of trip. For example, leisure combines vacation/holiday with visiting friends and family (VFR). If VFR is 30 percent of your leisure visitors and VFR is trending down or up to the U.S. it will impact your destination more or less than the U.S. overall. Every destination has a country-specific visitor mix that may include more vacation than VFR, or more business than convention etc. To enhance your destination’s forecast, it is important to know your destination’s visitor mix by country.
2. Ports of Entry. Today airlines are shifting routes rapidly. Other than a few unique destinations, most visitors use various entry points. Portmapping of your primary airports and feeder airports by country provides depth in projecting visits – especially in understanding shifts.
3. Hub Impact. Airports focus on maximizing the number of people paying to fly into and out of their airport and mostly report data in terms of people (passengers). Understanding your primary airport(s) goals and tracking the airport data by visitors along with the entry of people is vital. For example, a route from the UK to your destination could have a portion of passengers that are only using the airport as a gateway to pass on to another destination. Knowing if the people (passengers) visit your city/state overnight is key in understanding how the airport data reflects a shift in visits.
4. Residency is Key. There are over 200 types of visas people can use to enter the United States. Only 14 are used to consider a person a visitor. To be a visitor the person also must stay in the U.S. at least one night. In addition, to ensure marketing is targeted appropriately, a person entering the U.S. is also tracked by where they live, earn their income, and are influenced rather than their flight departure point. The same basic rules apply for a visitor to a destination. Once again, airport and airline data focus on people on the plane and landing at the airport, no matter their visa type, if they stay overnight, or by what country they live in. In addition, most international visitors travel to more than one city and state during their U.S. visit. Understanding your destination’s visitor patterns by residency builds understanding in projecting shifts to your destination
For more information on TMI’s forecast, contact Scott C. Johnson: SCOTT@TRAVELMI.COM.
Google on Driving Traffic to Your Travel Product Using Machine Learning
We’re always thinking about travel, a just-completed study from Think with Google tells us. Most of those thoughts, the report says, lead to booking decisions that have nothing to do with price, and machine learning can help. (Note: Machine learning is an application of artificial intelligence (AI) that provides systems the ability to automatically learn and improve from experience without being explicitly programmed. Machine learning focuses on the development of computer programs that can access data and use it learn for themselves.)
The average traveler spends 13 percent of his/her time online conducting travel-related activities.
That won’t surprise anyone who’s ever started planning an
Alaskan vacation after scrolling through a friend’s wilderness photos or
researched Rio hotels after watching a documentary about Carnival.
When it comes to travel, inspiration is everywhere. As a result, the purchase
path is full of twists and turns. It ranges from days to months, stretches
across thousands of touchpoints, and generates a mountain of data in
the process. In the survey that produced its report, Google
asked more than 7,000 travelers from six countries how they plan a trip from
beginning to end, starting with what inspired them to travel.
Source: Google/Bain, Global (AU, BR, DE, JP, U.S., U.K.), “Infinite Paths to Purchase,” 2019.
Even after completing a booking, many travelers continue to research and find inspiration.
But people don’t act on every inspiration. Each traveler has underlying needs that vary by trip.
When a brand shows it can meet those needs, people usually respond by taking an action. While needs can be emotional or functional, they’re the considerations that matter most to each traveler — often more than price.
Samples of underlying need as reflected in comments: “I need a dog-friendly hotel.” “I need things to do in Kyoto.” “I need a wellness trip to recharge.”
New research reveals that leaving these needs unmet will more likely deter a booking than price.
And needs-based bookings are more valuable than price-based ones, lifting revenue across major categories.
Before they booked, travelers showed interest in comfortable hotel beds, time-of-day availability, and airplane movie screens, signaling their unique needs: sleep quality, activities that fit their schedule, and in-flight entertainment. By catering to those needs, brands can earn more valuable bookings: +27 percent for international flights,⁷ 22 percent for hotels,⁸ and 14 percent for tour packages.⁹
Travelers’ unique needs are important for marketers to address. But how do marketers know what those needs are?
Clues from anonymous traveler IDs appear across searches, sites visited, videos watched, images viewed, tickets purchased, tours booked, and more. That volume makes it hard to tell what’s relevant.
Samples of “anonymous” traveler IDs:
—Traveler read an article titled “Best Hotels for Couples 2019”
—Searched “How long to train a dog.”
—Searched “Best dance lessons in Italy.”
—Visited local library website.
—Searched “When is feast of Santa Rosalia.”
—Booked October flight to Sicily.
—Browsed hotels in Palermo.
—Watched videos about homemade dog food.
—Viewed photos of the Amalfi Coast.
(The type of traveler above needs a couples vacation.)
By reviewing anonymized and aggregated data points in real time, machine learning can identify clues to understand what really matters to travelers. This allows brands to prioritize relevance across ads, while the data itself remains private and secure.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The chaos of the travel journey is an opportunity for marketers. It may look intimidating, but with the right tools, marketers can use these signals to deliver a more meaningful experience to every traveler, trip by trip.
• Focus on needs, not price: Today’s travelers need help planning not just any trip, but the right trip experience for them. So, whether your travelers value “adventure,” “health and wellness,” “family time,” or something else entirely, knowing what motivates them can inspire new products, value propositions, and marketing strategies, which can all help to build customer loyalty.
• Let consumer behavior guide your strategy: Since there is no single path to purchase, today’s travel brands should think holistically about all potential interactions with a traveler. After all, there are opportunities to re-engage someone even after they’ve completed a booking. A data-driven approach can help a brand find those opportunities and appear at the right moments of influence.
• Build relationships early with search: One of the best ways to engage travelers at the start of their journey is through search. Destination searches indicate that people are beginning to narrow down their travel ideas, even if they haven’t yet settled on all the details. Search also makes it easy to test and iterate, so you can experiment with how to reach more travelers and quickly identify the right audiences.
• Connect across the journey with machine learning: Machine learning makes it possible to analyze millions of nuanced interactions within seconds, and an ML-first marketing strategy can help future-proof your brand. With the power to automatically tailor messaging to different audiences, customize creative, and even free up time for other areas of the business, machine learning can help you connect with the people who were looking for you all along—whether they knew it or not.
1-9Google/Bain, Global (AU, BR, DE, JP, U.S., U.K.), “Infinite Paths to Purchase,” 2019.
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