A hoped for Q2 recovery evaporates and Q3 is now in peril. Were he writing Richard III today, perhaps Shakespeare might change the word “winter” to “summer” so that King Richard would utter the widely used quote from the drama so that it would say, “Now is the summer of our discontent …” For, judging from the content of the news coverage and commentary coming out of both the trade and consumer news channels of distribution in the UK, the travel and tourism industries—as well as their clients and customers—are feeling pretty miserable.

How things have changed. On February 23rd, the day after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that it might be OK for long-haul travel to outside of the UK to start by May 17, business at travel agencies exploded. According to a Bloomberg news item at the time, easyJet ticket sales more than quadrupled in the hours after Johnson made his announcement, and TUI UK said that reservations to Spain, Turkey and Greece jumped sixfold overnight. Later, June 21 was established as Freedom Day, the day upon which travel most restrictions imposed on travel because of COVID-19, would be eased.

Then, last week, the Johnson government announced that an additional month had been tacked on to the proposed “Freedom Day” on which most restrictions on outbound international travel would be eliminated—pushing it back to July 17. The reason cited for the postponement was an increase in the number COVID cases that involved a new variant.

Johnson said if the government were to lift restrictions on June 21, as first planned, there could be thousands of more deaths. So, the government’s goal is to get all adults vaccinated even more quickly than before. As summed up by Euronews, the situation, then, looks like this:

—Full opening of restrictions delayed until July 19.

—Delay in the opening is due to the rapid spread of the Delta variant.

—Accelerating vaccination for all adults to get two doses.

—There will be a plan for ‘booster vaccines’ coming out soon.

—Furlough scheme for employees’ wages continues to September 30.

Just as the Johnson announcement was sinking in, the authoritative travel trade publication, Travel Weekly(UK) released some details of a report based on survey research it had commissioned. A key finding was that merely 31 percent of UK adults planned to take an overseas holiday by April next year, but of these only just 15 percent (just a breath above five percent of the adult population) would “travel at the earliest opportunity.” (You’ll find more results from the study below.)

And it didn’t help the industry’s esprit de corps when a TV doctor, Amir Khan, said last week that no one should be able to travel abroad until everyone in the UK is vaccinated. No wonder, then, the historically sedate and polite professionals in the British tourism industry called for a “Travel Day of Action” (scheduled to take place today, June 23) at major cities that would include talks with government officials. Organized by the Save the Future Travel Coalition, the day’s action was also convening virtual and local events for those unable to travel.

What the public is telling us—more from the survey: Whether there is a causal relationship between the discouraging news about the COVID-19 virus and the British public’s attitude about travel is irrelevant. What seems to matter is how the industry can analyze the survey and take steps to help the travel and tourism industry salvage something in the remaining half-year of business. Some of the survey findings include the following:

—Almost one in three prospective holidaymakers (30 percent) intended to “wait and see” how the traffic light system (the colors of red, amber or green—red meaning “don’t even think of trying to go there”) for international travel develops before booking.

—One in four (26 percent) either said they were “unlikely” to take an overseas holiday “while the traffic light system is in place” or were uncertain of the requirements for travel.

—The remainder simply didn’t know when they might book or travel.

—The findings suggest substantial caution among consumers even before the government removed Portugal from the destination green list in early June.

—There was a clear division by age on almost every response.

—Almost one in five would-be holidaymakers under 54 (18 percent) said they would travel at the earliest opportunity compared with 5 [percent of those aged 65 and over.

—Twenty percent of those aged under 35 felt reassured they would be able to travel before the end of the year. It was just 14 percent or less among all aged 35 and above.

—One in four (26 percent) of those under the age of 45 said they would wait to see how travel’s restart develops before booking, compared with 39 percent of those who are 55 and over.

—Only one in nine of those under 45 (11 percent) said they were unlikely to take a holiday while the traffic light system is in place, compared with the one in five (19 percent) who would delay booking among those 45 and above.

—One in seven (14 percent) young holiday buyers (aged 16-34) were unsure about overseas travel requirements, second only to those aged 65 and over (18 percent). Less than one in 12 (8 percent) of those 45-to-64-year-olds who said they were unsure.

—Overall, the research said under-35s who intend to take a holiday (37 percent) are confident about travelling abroad, declining to almost one in three 35-to-54-year-olds 31 percent) and one in five over the age of 55 (20 percent).

—However, those under 45 also appear more uncertain about travel. That is, 23 percent of respondents in 35-44-year-old category and 17 percent of 16-to-24-year-olds were unsure of their intentions. In contrast, just 6 percent of would-be holidaymakers aged 65 or over were unsure.

⦁ Will UK Use NHS App as Vaccination Passport? There have been reports from throughout the world in the past several months suggesting that governmental agencies of different sorts are testing various methods of using evidence that an individual has received at COVID-19 vaccination as a “passport.” In the UK, it appears that the British government is working out a way for Britons to use the app it already has for use with its National Health Service (NHS) as a vaccine passport.

Grant Shapps, the UK Secretary of State for Transport, confirmed to Britain’s Sky News that the government is working on such a passport, explaining that. “It will be the NHS app that is used for people when they book appointments with the NHS and so on.”

A quick study of what this app is all about is here, from a most recent issue of pharmaphorum.com, which covers the pharmaceuticals industry.

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⦁ UK Holidaymakers Ready & Set to Go—Air transport Infrastructure has been in place and operating for some time: Much of the pandemic-related media attention in the UK has focused on just how extensive the opening up of both short-haul and long-haul air travel is going to be—no one, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson—seems to have a direct answer. But indications are that some startup of booking activity will begin next week, from May 17th onward. (Caution: Grant Shapps, the UK Secretary of State for Transport has said that prospective international travelers should wait “two to three weeks” from that date to book foreign holidays

However, the latest OAG data show that domestic airline activity has been humming along and—a big surprise to those who thought the lucrative London Heathrow-to-NYC corridor has been dormant—there has been steady movement between the USA and the UK for those allowed to fly. ‘’

Translated into industry terms, this suggests that a re-start won’t involve as much “lag time” during which the air carriers will have to re-activate (and in some cases, re-certify some of the employees who fly, service and maintain the airlines—not to mention the numbers of airline workers who might have given up on resuming their jobs and are working at something else.

Following are two graphics indicating that, although almost all UK aircraft movement has been domestic, last month’s numbers show that there has been regular aircraft activity.

Source: OAG Mapper

Source: OAG Mapper

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⦁ Less than a third of Brits now comfortable with thought of traveling. A recent YouGov poll of UK adults showed that almost two-thirds are uncomfortable about traveling abroad once restrictions on the activity are lifted. The poll, conducted last month among more than 1,400 adults, also revealed the following:

—63 percent of respondents were not comfortable traveling.

—30 percent were comfortable.

—Seven percent said they were unsure.

—Of those who were not comfortable, 54 percent were “not at all comfortable,” with the remainder of respondents “not very comfortable.”

—Of the 30 percent who were comfortable, a third of those were “very comfortable,” with two-thirds indicating that they were “fairly comfortable.”

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Confidence of TOP 25 tour operators shaken in past year as they post numbers for coming year. “Oh to be in England now that April’s there,” the country’s Robert Browning (1812-1889) mused in one of his better-known poems. In April 2021 year, it just might mean that the British travel and tourism industry is waging a frantic virtual war of marketing, promoting, selling and making the case for their fellow citizens to travel abroad in order to help preserve the industry.

April, you see, is one of the two occasions each year when Air Travel Organizer (or tour operators) Licenses (ATOL) are approved for the coming year. The process hasn’t been normal for a year-and-a-half now—ever since once second-largest operator, Thomas Cook, collapsed on Sept. 23, 2019, just days before the deadline for filing for ATOL approval. Six months later, in April of 2020—it was just weeks after the COVID-19 crisis became a global pandemic. And now, licensees are filled with anxiety (or eagerness, perhaps), as they await May 17th. This is date when agents and operators can start selling overseas travel.

The data seem to suggest that even though the one-year number for ATOL passengers is down (3.3 million) for just the Top 5 operators. However, the Number 1 operator, TUI UK, is expecting to serve more than 3.7 million customers in the coming year.

By posting both the Top 25 ATOL holders from this year vs. April 2020, the data below show an imperfect, but real l impact because of COVID-19 and a global pandemic.

“Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to holiday … “

The people of the UK—it comprises the largest source market for overseas tourism to the USA—are in a state conflict over the matter of taking their traditional summer holiday. The British government has indicated that it could be permissible, at the moment, for the people of the UK to take an international holiday as soon as May 17th.

There are, however, some significant hurdles for those who would like to do so: First, there is the specter of the COVIG-19 virus and its variants failing to decrease in numbers and making any kind of leisure travel—domestic or international—a risky matter. And second is the outright opposition by the UK government’s own transport minister speaking out against the notion of such travel.

The UK’s holiday maker population is torn. First, even though Brits ache to soak up the sticky summer sun of Florida, those who want to travel recognize the inherent peril of going abroad and sharing space inside an airplane or other modes of travel that involve passengers sitting or standing close together.

However, and this is key as we write this: more and more Britons seem willing to risk traveling overseas as the numbers of people as the number of those receiving at least one COVID-19 vaccination increases. Both the UK and USA populations are at, or have just exceeded the point at which half of its numbers have received at least one coronavirus vaccination.

Following is a quick précis of current discussion points on the issue.

• The go-ahead-and-book-it view. Best stated by Noel Josephides, a director at the Specialist Travel Association (AITO), which has some 100 member operators, he acknowledged in a discussion with the British travel trade publication Travel Weekly that it was “a worry” if agents were “holding back from booking” and warned it could affect capacity.

At the same a number of travel agents have been taking a cautious approach to sales since British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his government’s “Road to Recovery” on Feb. 22. Some agents are not selling early summer departures at all.

But Josephides stressed: “We have no reason to believe we cannot start (from May 17). It’s OK to book. We [the industry] wanted a roadmap and we got it. It would be remiss not to make use of it. “If we don’t show we are willing, and have the confidence to start booking from May 17, it would be very disappointing. We have been given a date and should act on it. We should look on the bright side and not worry that it will not go ahead,” said Josephides, who is also chairman of the tour operator Sunvil, which specializes in Europe and Latin America product.

He said his own company was encouraging agents to make bookings from May 17, and said doing so could have a “snowball effect” on confidence, suggesting that “If bookings come your way, take them.”

“Bookings made now determine what flights will go and which won’t, and what hotels will open,” he told TW. “If everyone waits until a week before May 17, then it’s too late – capacity will have been set.”

• The wait-and-see then wait-some-more view. Asked early last week on BBC Radio 4’s Today program if it was too early to book a summer holiday, Transport Minister Grant Shapps replied: “Yes.” This is a repeat of the answer given to similar questions ever since Prime Minister Johnson announced his government’s Road to Recovery plan.

• The pain and angst of the I-really-want-to-holiday view. A new surveyed featured in Travel Daily News International tells us that, while just a quarter of people surveyed say they are “very likely” to book a holiday before they’ve had the COVID-19 vaccine, the number more than doubles post-vaccination.  

This is just one of the interesting, if not intriguing, numbers one will find in the Travel and Tourism Survey conducted by vacation rental site TravelNest, which measured the impact of the global pandemic on UK holiday plans for this year. The survey interviewed more than 600 people across the UK.

The top findings of the survey include the following:

—More than half of respondents say they will not take a holiday abroad this year.

—Seventy-nine percent of respondents plan to take one or two UK-based “staycations.”

—Rural holidays (at 51percent) are most popular with Brits, followed by beach holidays (43 percent), city breaks (36 percent), road trips (29 percent) and activity holidays (19 percent).

—44 percent plan to holiday in the Summer (June, July, August).

—23 percent plan to vacation in the Autumn (September, October, November).

—Holiday homes (44 percent) are more popular than hotel stays (29 percent).

—Planned breaks of 7 nights or more have doubled in 2021 versus the last 3 months of 2020 and on average customers are booking stays of 5 nights

—Average booking value has increased by around 40% in 2021 versus the last 3 months of 2020

Rebecca Moore, chief operating officer at TravelNest said: “The findings, together with our own booking activity, reveal significant pent-up demand for holidays when restrictions allow, and that the vaccine is affecting decision-making by significantly increasing traveler confidence.”

Then, there’s this: Why UK Travel to the USA is so important. Japan sent just over 5 million visitors to the United States in 2000. Since then, no other nation has achieved the 5-million mark. No other nation, in fact, had even come close to the 5 million market until 2019, when the UK sent nearly 4.8 million visitors to the U.S. It was generally accepted that the UK had a chance at doing so in 2020.

And then came COVI-19 and a global pandemic: The number of UK visitors to the U.S. plummeted by 84.7 percent in 2020. Were that number translated to dollars, it would tell us that British spending on travel to the U.S. fell by $11.28 billion. (Based on data in the U.S. National Travel & Tourism Office Market Profile: United Kingdom.)